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Chiefs Double-Digit Favorites Coming Off Lopsided Defeat

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are big favorites over the Giants in NFL betting odds.

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) will try to bounce back from a brutal road loss when they host the New York Giants (2-5, 3-4) as double-digit home favorites on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are coming off a 27-3 defeat to the Tennessee Titans as 4-point road favorites in Week 7, the second time in eight games they have been held without a touchdown, including last year’s Super Bowl.  

New York Giants vs Kansas City Chiefs
  • Date/Time: November 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: Chiefs -10.5 | O/U 54 (Line History)
  • Giants vs Chiefs Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

There has been some small early support for the Giants, who routed the Carolina Panthers 25-3 as 3-point home underdogs last Sunday. They have flashed their potential in wins over the Panthers and New Orleans Saints while two of their five losses have come by a combined four points. But can bettors trust them in this spot against a potentially explosive Kansas City team that is banged up yet can still pile on the points? The total, though, is down to 51.5 after that same team scored only three points, which is worth watching because a more conservative offensive game plan could help Patrick Mahomes.

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New York News & Notes

How good did New York look against Carolina, particularly quarterback Daniel Jones? The third-year signal-caller is on pace to post career-best numbers in passing and rushing yards through the first seven games, and he single-handedly carried the Giants offense on his back in the win over the Panthers.

However, their defense also came through with a huge performance in Sam Darnold’s return to the Big Apple for Carolina. Darnold was 16-for-25 for 111 yards with an interception and took a safety to turn the tide in the game. Mahomes is a much different player, obviously, but the D got a big confidence boost there.

Kansas City News & Notes

To say Mahomes had a tough time at Tennessee is an understatement. He completed 20 of 35 passes for 206 yards, threw his ninth interception and was also the team’s leading rusher with 35 yards on six carries.

While he avoided a concussion, that was probably the best thing that came out of a performance similar to the one he had for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They must do a better job of protecting him or else their fans and backers may be seeing a lot more of Chad Henne for the rest of the season.

The loss to the Titans also marked only the second time an opponent was held under 29 points this year.

How New York Will Cover

New York has very little to lose here besides the game, so it would not be surprising to see head coach Joe Judge let Jones continue to do the things he does best – running and throwing. If Jones can just avoid turning the ball over, the Giants can definitely cover.

How Kansas City Will Cover

Kansas City has had a difficult time covering the spread over the past couple of seasons despite making consecutive Super Bowl appearances during that stretch. But when the Chiefs have covered this year, it has been vs NFC East opponents in the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team, going 2-0 ATS and outscoring them 73-43.

Computer Pick: Chiefs -10

For more Week 8 predictions, visit our NFL Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • New York is 0-8 SU in its last 8 prime-time games.
  • KC is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite.
  • The UNDER is 7-0 in the past 7 meetings.