Even with Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack inactive, the Jets failed to take advantage of a weakened Bears squad and a +8.5-point spread. New York produced a paltry 207 yards of total offense in a 24-10 loss at Chicago to fall to 3-5 overall and against the spread.
With six receptions for 134 yards, Miami’s DeVante Parker posted one of the best stat lines of his professional career, but it wasn’t enough to keep pace with Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ uptempo offense that racked up 188 rush yards, 239 pass yards and five passing touchdowns without a turnover. The Dolphins are now 4-4 overall and against the spread this season.
Miami opened as a 3-point favorite, the Jets moneyline is +115 and the point total is 45.5. The Jets were favored by 3 at home back in the Week 2 matchup but lost outright 20-12.
- The Jets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road vs the Dolphins.
- The Dolphins are 5-2 SU in their last seven games vs their division at home.
- The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive ATS losses.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 8
Jets – The pieces around Sam Darnold are beginning to crumble. Without Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa, the Jets’ remaining offensive options are among the worst in the league. So, it’s no surprise they produced a Week 8 league-low 3.8 yards per play and converted only three of 14 third downs against the Bears.
Dolphins – From the sounds of it, head coach Adam Gase doesn’t expect Ryan Tannehill to be ready to play Week 9.
When the Dolphins started the season 3-0, they allowed 17.3 points per game. In their past five, in which they are 1-4, Miami’s injury-riddled defense has allowed 33.4 points per game. The Fins are now allowing nearly six more points per game than they’re scoring, 27.4 to 21.8.
NEXT LEVEL TREND: DOLPHINS R&R, SU and ATS
Coaches and players often opine about how nice it is to reach the bye week and enjoy some well-earned rest and relaxation. However, bettors often wonder if that extended time off really benefits teams straight up and against the spread the next time they take the field. While Miami isn’t coming off a bye, it will not have played in 10 days. Since 2013, Miami is 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS when more than seven days have passed between back-to-back games.
Note: does not include bye weeks
NEXT LEVEL TREND: THE GROUNDED JETS
New York running back Elijah McGuire had surgery to fix a broken foot back in July and was placed on temporary injured reserve to start the season. With Bilal Powell out for the season due to a serious neck injury, Isaiah Crowell ineffective and rookie Trenton Cannon lacking experience, McGuire’s scheduled return couldn’t come at a better time. New York has averaged just 64 rush yards per game with Crowell the lead back the past two weeks. From 2015 to 2017, teams that finish with fewer than 70 rush yards in a game are 93-240-15 against the spread.
McGuire’s status and production aside, we’ll know the state of the Jets’ rushing attack by Monday, being that the Dolphins allow a league-high 143 rush yards per game.
MIAMI, FLORIDA FORECAST
Temperatures in the low 80s, muggy with a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be 10-15 miles per hour.
New York’s Jason Myers is 18-for-19 on field goals and hasn’t missed an extra point since Week 2, hitting 18 of 19 overall. Miami’s Jason Sanders converted all three field goals at Houston to improve to 9-for-10, with 19 of 20 extra points made this season.
MY PICK
After failing to cover five straight in this matchup, the Dolphins are 3-1-1 against the spread vs the Jets since 2016. New York is wrapping up one of the toughest stretches of its schedule and, after losing by 14 or more points in back-to-back games, finds little reprieve in a road trip to Miami where even the mighty New England Patriots have struggled the past several years. Both teams are banged up and, as is often the case in the AFC East, either playing for a wild card or looking ahead to next year. The only way the Jets cover the 3 is if the running game gets going, and McGuire needs to suit up for that to happen.
I’m leaning Dolphins cover.
