Betting Preview: New York Giants vs New England Patriots

Tom Brady and the Patriots look to cruise to a short-week victory, but can they cover a double-digit spread?

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Patriots opened as 15.5-point home favorites with some books as high as New England -17.5. New York’s moneyline opened at +600, which is by far the biggest ML dog of Week 6. The point total opened at 44.5 as Thursday night totals continue to trend low.

Despite allowing an early Washington touchdown, New England improved to 5-0 SU and 3-2 against the spread after covering -16.5 in an easy 33-7 win over the Redskins. The Giants are 2-3 SU and ATS after their defense allowed nearly 500 yards of offense to the Vikings in a 28-10 loss.

New England’s home domination continues as the Pats are 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games with a 9-2 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones suffered his first SU and ATS loss against the Vikings. The UNDER hit in both of his previous two games with an average combined score of 32.5.

New York News & Notes

Saquon Barkley could play against the Patriots this Thursday. Now, depending on how you look at things, this could be good or bad news. Most high-ankle sprains take a month or more to recover from, but Barkley told reporters Sunday that the typical six- to eight-week timetable may not apply to him.

“How can anyone tell me how long I’m supposed to be out?” Barkley told NFL Network.

So, either Barkley returns sooner than anticipated at likely less than 90 percent health based on the history of the injury or he doesn’t play. Those are the two scenarios bettors should consider before backing the Giants.

Granted, New York could use him because second-string running back Wayne Gallman is in the concussion protocol and unlikely to be cleared before Thursday. Without a veteran presence in the backfield, the Giants offense finished with just 211 total yards, while Daniel Jones looked pedestrian against an elite Vikings defense. Minnesota was actually penalized 12 times for 112 yards and the G-Men could still only muster 10 points.

On defense, New York’s secondary allowed a reeling Vikings pass offense to complete 22 of 26 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns, while Dalvin Cook posted 132 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Tom Brady’s going to carve this up.

New England News & Notes

You can’t learn much from the Patriots’ 33-7 win over a Colt McCoy-led offense and a Redskins franchise that fired its head coach the following morning. Yet, New England’s defense did finish with six sacks and held Washington to 1-for-11 on third downs. Opposing offenses are converting a league-low 12.7 percent of third downs against the Patriots. Dallas has the next-best percentage at 26.2. This is NOT what a rookie quarterback wants to face on a short week, in a hostile environment where the home team appears unbeatable.

Also, while their ATS record may be 3-2 on paper, New England’s failure to cover against the Jets was thanks to a special teams muffed punt recovered for a touchdown and a Jarrett Stidham pick-six. So, we’ll place a nice bold asterisk on that ATS loss.

On the injury front, Julian Edelman continues to fight through a chest injury, which didn’t stop him from racking up 110 yards on eight catches with a touchdown. Fellow receiver Phillip Dorsett was forced from last Sunday’s game due to a hamstring injury. We’ll have to see if Rex Burkhead, Patrick Chung and Nate Ebner can all return on the short week as each missed the Redskins game due to various injuries.

Bonus Bite: The UNDER has hit in four of five Patriots games this season.

Betting Pick: UNDER 44.5

It’s a short week and Bill Belichick doesn’t want to risk unnecessary injury for the sake of a blowout win. Whether or not Jones and Barkley can muster up 14 points against this defense is the bigger question. 

For more on the pick, hit me up on Twitter @FreelanceFowler