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NFL Betting Tips From Pamela Maldonado: 1-0 Teams vs 0-1 Teams

Adam Vinatieri Costs Indianapolis a Win in Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL season left us with more questions than answers. Namely, are Mitch Trubisky and the Bears as overrated as we had feared coming out of the 2018 season? Is Marcus Mariota a quarterback we should be giving a second look to? Will the Dolphins be as bad as predicted? Is Gardner Minshew the next Nick Foles? And Steelers, hello? Who are you now?

But as to not overreact from just one week of play, I wanted to see how teams with 0-1 records have fared in the past when facing a 1-0 team in Week 2.

This week, there are seven games that fall into that category. They are:

  • Colts (0-1) at Titans (1-0), TEN -3
  • Bills (1-0) at Giants (0-1), BUF -2
  • Patriots (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1), NE -19
  • Cowboys (1-0) at Redskins (0-1), DAL -5
  • Seahawks (1-0) at Steelers (0-1), PIT -4
  • 49ers (1-0) at Bengals (0-1), CIN -1.5
  • Eagles (1-0) at Falcons (0-1), PHI -1.5

The Patriots put a stomping on the Steelers, while the Dolphins got stomped on, and now the Pats are -19 favorites away. Is this a spot worth taking the favorite? Or should you consider the home underdog getting lots of points?

There are two ways of collecting data on this. One, you can simply look at how teams responded (ATS) the following week after either a win or a loss.

Here’s that data since 2015 for each of the matchups listed above:

Colts @ Titans
  • Colts: 19-15 (56%) ATS after a loss
  • Titans: 10-19-1 (34.5%) ATS after a win
Bills @ Giants
  • Bills: 13-14-1 (48%) ATS after a win
  • Giants: 20-16-1 (56%) ATS after a loss
Patriots @ Dolphins
  • Patriots: 37-18-2 (67%) ATS after a win
  • Dolphins: 11-21-1 (34%) ATS after a loss
Cowboys @ Redskins
  • Cowboys: 19-16-1 (54%) ATS after a win
  • Redskins: 18-11 (62%) ATS after a loss
Seahawks @ Steelers
  • Seahawks: 18-22-1 (45%) ATS after a win
  • Steelers: 12-8 (60%) ATS after a loss
49ers @ Bengals
  • 49ers: 5-10 (33%) ATS after a win
  • Bengals: 18-13 (58%) ATS after a loss
Eagles @ Falcons
  • Eagles: 20-17 (54%) ATS after a win
  • Falcons: 10-17 (37%) ATS after a loss

Using this logic, it makes sense to assume that most teams have a bounce-back week following a loss. Unless you’re the Patriots, of course, then you just go on continuing to both win and cover because ... Belichick.

But, if you break it down by season, you’ll still find that losers from Week 1 tend to cover the spread the following week against a winning Week 1 team.

0-1 Teams Against 1-0 Teams in Week 2 (2018)

Colts (0-1) at Redskins (1-0) -5.5: Indianapolis won 21-9 ✅

Panthers (1-0) at Falcons (0-1) -5.5: Carolina lost 31-24

Cardinals (0-1) at Rams (1-0) -13: Arizona lost 34-0

Raiders (0-1) at Broncos (1-0) -6: Oakland lost 20-19 ✅

Two out of the four teams that lost in Week 1 covered the spread in Week 2 against teams coming off wins.

0-1 Teams Against 1-0 Teams in Week 2 (2017)

Titans (0-1) -1.5 at Jaguars (1-0): Tennessee won 37-16 ✅

Browns (0-1) at Ravens (1-0) -8: Cleveland lost 24-10

Jets (0-1) at Raiders (1-0) -13.5: New York lost 45-20

Redskins (0-1) at Rams (1-0) -2.5: Washington won 27-20 ✅

Again, two out of the four teams that lost in Week 1 covered the spread in Week 2 against teams coming off wins and both ATS winners also won outright.

0-1 Teams Against 1-0 Teams in Week 2 (2016)

Saints (0-1) at Giants (1-0) -5.5: New Orleans lost 16-13 ✅

Titans (0-1) at Lions (1-0) -5: Tennessee won 16-15 ✅

Dolphins (0-1) at Patriots (1-0) -6.5: Miami lost 31-24

Ravens (1-0) -5.5 at Browns (0-1): Cleveland lost 25-20 ✅

49ers (1-0) at Panthers (0-1) -12: Carolina won 46-27 ✅

Buccaneers (1-0) at Cardinals (0-1) -6.5: Arizona won 40-7 ✅

Seahawks (1-0) -4.5 at Rams (0-1): Los Angeles won 9-3 ✅

Colts (0-1) at Broncos (1-0) -6: Indianapolis lost 34-20

Falcons (0-1) at Raiders (1-0) -5.5: Atlanta won 35-28 ✅

Eagles (1-0) at Bears (0-1) -3: Chicago lost 29-14

Seven out of the 10 teams that lost in Week 1 covered the spread in Week 2 against teams coming off wins and five out of those seven won outright.

Although this is not foolproof and a small sample size, this data could get you to consider teams coming off a loss rather than simply going with the teams that won their openers.

And although the spread is so high, by just looking at the stats and previous data, taking the Patriots wouldn’t be the worst thing. They perform well after a win (but of course they do) and the Dolphins seem to perform poorly after a loss. But I’ll leave that up to you whether you want to lay money on an away team covering nearly three touchdowns. Patriots or not, that’s a big number to cover.