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NFL Free Pick: Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys

NFL Free Pick: Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys (DAL -7, O/U 46)

The Dallas Cowboys will host Josh Allen and the Bills in their yearly Thanksgiving Day game. Buffalo comes in with an 8-3 record after disposing of the Broncos in Week 12 and will attempt to win its third straight against the NFC East-leading Cowboys. Dallas has lost two of its last three but enters with one of the most prolific offenses in football thanks to an outstanding season thus far from Dak Prescott. He’s really been the motor for this team, as all six of the Cowboys’ wins have come when they’ve scored 31 or more points.

Although Buffalo holds the better overall record this season, Dallas enters this matchup as a 7-point favorite over the Bills. Our model thinks it’ll be much closer than Vegas is implying, as we project a final score of 23.9 - 21.9 in favor of the Cowboys. Therefore, we have a sizable wager on the Bills. Our model recommends an $83 wager on BUFFALO +7 for an average $100 bettor.

The Linebacker’s model is 99-50 ATS (66.4%) for +25.18 units and 90-68 (57.2%) on OVER/UNDERs for +24.55 units through 12 weeks of NFL, producing a profit of $4,973. Head over to thelinebacker.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to EVERY NFL Week 13 prediction.

For a special Thanksgiving holiday promotion, get 50% OFF your Linebacker subscription by using promo code “BLACKFRIDAY50” when you sign up!

Why Will Buffalo Cover the Spread?

  • Buffalo should be able to slow down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ dynamic passing attack. Dallas leads the NFL with 8.4 yards per pass attempt, and Prescott has been sacked on a league-low 2.92 percent of his dropbacks. The Bills come in with a strong pass defense, as their 5.4 yards per pass attempt allowed ranks third-best in the NFL. Their 8.15 percent sack rate is also notable, as it is seventh-highest in the league.
  • The Cowboys have been one of the best teams on third down in the NFL, converting 48.51 percent of their chances (second-most). Buffalo should be able to stall some Dallas drives thanks to its stellar third-down defense. The Bills have allowed opponents to convert on only 33.33 percent of third downs, the fifth-best mark in the NFL.
  • Buffalo can play a bit of keep-away from this prolific Dallas offense. The Bills are 10th in average time of possession among NFL teams, thanks to 46.12 percent of their plays resulting in a rushing attempt (sixth-highest). They also have plenty of success running it, averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the season (seventh-best in the NFL).
  • Dallas’ defense can be susceptible to running quarterbacks, which plays into what is arguably Josh Allen’s biggest strength as a signal-caller. The Cowboys just surrendered 51 yards and a touchdown on eight carries to Jeff Driskel in Week 11, and their 15.1 yards rushing allowed per game to opposing QBs is 14th-most in the league. Allen enters this matchup with the third-most rushing yards per game among quarterbacks (35.2 ypg), while his seven rushing TDs lead all quarterbacks and rank him sixth among all NFL ball carriers.

How to bet the total in Bills vs Cowboys

The Linebacker projects a final score of 23.9 - 21.9 in favor of the Cowboys. With 45.8 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 46, we have no suggested wager on the total in this one.

Need-to-know stats for Bills vs Cowboys

  • 19/32, 195.1 yards, 1.17 TDs, 0.81 INTs, 6 rushes, 29.2 yards, 0.4 TDs - Josh Allen is one of a handful of NFL quarterbacks who require a rushing projection alongside their standard passing projection. We’re projecting him to approach 30 yards rushing in this one, with a solid chance to reach the end zone. As mentioned above, his seven rushing TDs are best among quarterbacks and sixth overall among NFL rushers. He’s still not the most gifted thrower, however, as we project him to complete 59.4 percent of his passes and fall short of 200 yards. His 1.17 TD/0.81 INT ratio is also not great, so hopefully he can exceed projections and lead the Bills to an easy cover.
  • 22/36, 221.9 yards, 1.42 TDs, 0.94 INTs - Dak Prescott has had a career year under center this season, sitting top four among QBs with 8.6 yards per attempt (third), 312.1 yards passing per game (second) and 21 touchdowns (fourth). He’ll have one of his toughest tests against Buffalo and Sean McDermott’s stout secondary. We’re projecting he’ll fall shy of his season yardage average by nearly 100 yards, with a solid chance to throw an interception as he averaged 0.94 INTs per game in our simulations.
  • 18 rushes, 80.0 yards, 0.6 TDs2 catches, 15.8 yards, 0.06 TDs - Ezekiel Elliott has taken a bit of a back seat in the Cowboys offense thanks to Prescott’s outstanding season, but he has still been getting his fair share of touches. We’re projecting him to handle 20 of them on Turkey Day, amassing nearly 100 yards from scrimmage. He also has the best TD projection of any Dallas skill player, as he averaged 0.6 TDs per game on the ground in our simulations. Buffalo’s run defense has been its one weakness, surrendering 4.4 yards per carry (21st) on the season.