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NFL Free Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Prediction Machine NFL Free Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (SEA -5, O/U 56)

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys hit the road to Seattle after an improbable 40-39 comeback victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Russell Wilson has posted MVP-caliber numbers through two weeks and enters this game with a league-high 9.1 yards per pass attempt. It’s setting up to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair with Seattle sitting as a 5-point favorite and the OVER/UNDER currently at a season high of 56 points. While our model is expecting a shootout, it isn’t quite on board with Seattle laying 5 against the visiting Cowboys.

Our NFL model is projecting a final score of 28.3-27.4 in favor of Dallas, giving us a large edge on Prescott and the Cowboys. Our model suggests a $112 wager on DALLAS +5 for an average $100 bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NFL model was 129-75 ATS (63.2%) for +26.85 units and 117-98 (54.4%) on O/Us for +21.04 units in the 2019-20 season, producing a total profit of $4,789. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.

Why will Dallas cover the spread?

  • Seattle’s pass defense has been eviscerated by opposing quarterbacks through two weeks. The Seahawks are ranked 30th with 8.5 yards allowed per pass attempt and just surrendered 397 passing yards to Cam Newton. It was Cam’s highest passing yardage total in NINE YEARS and the third-most in his 134 career games. Newton was throwing to the likes of Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Damiere Byrd, while Dak Prescott will enter this matchup with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott as his primary targets.
  • Despite Russell Wilson’s early-season success, the Seahawks have allowed him to be sacked on 7.35 percent of his dropbacks, the 10th-highest rate in the league. Dallas is near the bottom of the league in sacking the quarterback thus far, but they have talent along the defensive line with Everson Griffen, DeMarcus Lawrence and Aldon Smith. A couple of timely sacks could stall drives for Seattle and get the ball back into Prescott’s hands.
  • Seattle’s defense took some major hits last week as Bruce Irvin tore his ACL and Marquise Blair ended up on IR with a knee injury of his own. The Seahawks should struggle to generate pressure on Prescott as Dallas’ starting left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to return, allowing plenty of time for Dak to pick apart a less than 100 percent Seattle secondary.

How to bet the total in Cowboys at Seahawks:

Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 28.3-27.4 in favor of the Cowboys. With 55.7 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 56, we have no suggested wager on the total in this one.

Need-to-know stats for Cowboys at Seahawks:

  • 7 catches, 99.3 yards, 0.71 TDs - Amari Cooper projects as the top receiver for Dallas by a pretty wide margin. His 23 targets are eight more than the next-closest pass catcher for the Cowboys, and he’s converted those targets into 16 catches and 181 yards. Seattle hasn’t been able to stop any receivers this season, having allowed an NFL-high 50 receptions and 731 receiving yards to opposing wideouts. The next-closest teams in those categories are Denver with 39 receptions allowed and Atlanta with 524 yards allowed, over 200 yards fewer than Seattle. Fire up all Dallas pass catchers in this one, but especially Cooper.
  • 14 rushes, 57.6 yards, 0.60 TDs, 3 catches, 28.2 yards, 0.23 TDs - Chris Carson has amassed 93 rushing yards on just 23 carries through two games, but has more than made up for it with nine catches for 81 yards and three touchdowns. We’re predicting his rushing workload to be relatively low once again as Dallas presents more of a pass-funnel defense by allowing just 3.6 yards per rushing attempt (sixth-best) and a 10th-worst 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Carson should still be productive for fantasy owners, but his shot at approaching 100 rushing yards is very slim and we should expect the passing attacks to fuel both offenses in this matchup.