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NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Raiders vs Chiefs

Raiders vs Chiefs Free Pick from Linebacker

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -14, O/U 52.5)

Patrick Mahomes and the 11-4 Chiefs host the division rival Raiders this Sunday. Kansas City enters as the 14-point home favorite, as Oakland is 4-11 on the season and last in the AFC West. Derek Carr and the Raider offense will look to keep pace with the high-flying Chiefs, just as they did in their 40-33 loss against the Chiefs in Oakland earlier this season. The Linebacker predicts a final score of 29.0 - 23.5 in favor of the Chiefs, giving us a strong play on the spread for Oakland. We suggest a wager of $97 on Oakland +14 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will Oakland cover the spread?

  • The Raiders defense has picked it up in the last quarter of the season. Over their last three games, they rank sixth in yards per play allowed (4.8) and 10th in total yards allowed to opposing teams.
  • Derek Carr should find success against this Kansas City secondary. The Chiefs are allowing the second-most passing yards per game (281) and have allowed the sixth-most TD passes to opposing QBs (30). Carr went 29-for-38 for 285 yards and three TDs in their Week 13 matchup.
  • Despite their 4-11 record, the Raiders have lost just one of their last seven games by more than 14 points. On the flip side, Kansas City has just one victory of over 14 points in its last eight games.
  • Doug Martin has emerged as a decent weapon over the last two weeks, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. The Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL with 5.0 yards per carry allowed to opposing backs, so the Raiders should be able to run the ball successfully and limit the possessions for Patrick Mahomes.

How to bet the total in Raiders @ Chiefs:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 29.0 - 23.5 in favor of the Chiefs. With 52.5 projected points and an OVER/UNDER of 52.5, we have no suggestion on betting the total in this game.

Need-to-know stats for Raiders @ Chiefs:

  • 27-40, 281.8 yards, 1.45 TDs - Derek Carr should have another solid outing against this KC defense. We project he’ll throw it 40 times to keep up with the Chiefs’ scoring, falling just shy of 300 yards. Carr averaged 1.45 passing TDs in our simulations, so he has a decent shot to reach multiple touchdown passes for the sixth time this season.
  • 16 carries, 72.8 yards, 0.61 TDs - Doug Martin projects to average 4.55 yards per carry against KC. The 29-year-old running back has a good chance to reach pay dirt, averaging 0.61 TDs in our simulations. Martin has scored in four of his last five games, while the Chiefs have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns this season (19).
  • 5 catches, 86.2 yards, 1 rush, 6.2 yards - Tyreek Hill is an all-around weapon for the Chiefs, and he projects to lead them in catches and receiving yards this week. Hill’s 17.2 yards per catch projection is slightly above his 16.8 mark on the season, which ranks fifth among NFL pass catchers. Oakland allows the fifth-most yards per attempt to opposing QBs, so it shapes up to be a relatively big week for Tyreek.
  • 21-34, 313.6 yards, 1.82 TDs - Patrick Mahomes’ MVP campaign comes to a close this weekend, and it looks like he’ll post another highly efficient week. He projects to post 9.22 yards per attempt, which is higher than his league-best 8.66 y/a among QBs this season. He also needs just two more passing touchdowns to reach 50 on the season, which is likely considering he averaged 1.82 passing TDs in our simulations.