Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions (DET +3, O/U 51.5)
The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day festivities kick off in Detroit where Matthew Stafford and the Lions will host Deshaun Watson and the Texans. Both teams are well outside the playoff picture at the moment, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t expecting fireworks.
Watson enters as one of the league’s best passers in 2020, sporting a second-best 8.5 yards per pass attempt on the season. Stafford hasn’t had the season he was hoping for after missing eight games in 2019 due to a back injury but he has been without his top target in Kenny Golladay for much of the year. While Golladay is expected to miss Thursday’s contest as well, D’Andre Swift is likely to return for this Turkey Day clash.
The Lions are currently 3-point underdogs to the visiting Texans. Our model is projecting a final score of 29.1-26.0 in favor of Houston, so while we don’t have an edge on the spread, we are projecting the game to finish OVER the current total of 51.5. Our model suggests a $94 wager on OVER 51.5 for an average $100 bettor.
Prediction Machine’s NFL model is 183-142 ATS (56.3%) and 175-157 (52.7%) on O/Us for +29.41 units, or $2,941 of profit since the start of the 2019 season. Head over to predictionmachine.com/pricing and sign up to receive every NFL prediction.
Why will the total go OVER?
How to bet the spread in Texans vs Lions
Prediction Machine’s NFL model projects a final score of 29.1-26.0 in favor of the Texans. The current spread is Houston -3. With a projected margin of victory of 3.1 points for Houston and a spread of 3 points, we have no edge against the spread in this one.