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NFL Week 5 Betting Primer

Did you get outsmarted by that greasy bookie last week or did you get closer to our goal of destroying his life and sending him into a new line of work, preferably some low-paying, bottom-of-the-rung gig in the sewage industry?

Either way, the power is in our hands. We make the decisions and he sits back and either takes our money or pays up. The last few weeks in my betting primer intros, I’ve discussed the different betting tools we have available to us that should support our decisions on game day. The trends and stats below are a great starting point, then there’s fading the public with help from our consensus picks page, and today we’ll look at my favorite new stat and betting tool – net yards per play.

This is calculated by simply subtracting yards per play allowed from yards per play gained. It’s effective because it eliminates the randomness of turnovers. So far, the top net yards per play teams have been great bets, while the bad ones have been exactly that.

Over the last three weeks, the Redskins, Jets, Falcons, Broncos and Bengals rank as the top net yards per play teams. They’ve combined to go 10-5 ATS.

The bottom five in this stat category over the last three weeks are the Colts, Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles and Lions. They’ve combined to go 7-8 ATS.

The numbers speak for themselves, so add this stat to your betting tool belt to help you bust the bookie this weekend. And, oh yeah, KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Patriots at Buccaneers
  • New England’s defense is allowing the most passing yards per game this season. Tampa Bay’s is allowing the second most.
  • New England is averaging the most passing yards per game this season. Tampa Bay is third.
  • Tom Brady’s last 10 road games – 26 TDs, 0 INTs
  • Jameis Winston’s two career TNF games — 5 TDs, 1 INT
  • The Patriots are 38-5 SU in their last 43 games after losing as a favorite.
  • New England is ranked 29th in net yards per play this season.
  • The Buccaneers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games at night.
  • The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home.
  • The Buccaneers are 7-28 SU in their last 35 games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Patriots' last four games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Buccaneers' last 17 games in October.
  • The Patriots are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Patriots' last 10 games on the road against teams with winning records.
49ers at Colts
  • The Colts are ranked last in the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games and are allowing the most points per game — 34.
  • The 49ers are 1-18 SU in their last 19 games.
  • The Colts are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games after a loss.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Colts' last seven games at home. The average combined score in these games was 41.6.
  • The 49ers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as road underdogs.
  • The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after consecutive losses.
  • The Colts are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games at home in October.
  • The Colts are 3-1 SU in their last four games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The 49ers are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the East Coast.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the 49ers' last six games on the road in October.
Bills at Bengals
  • The Bills are allowing a league-best 13.5 points per game.
  • The Bills are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games after winning as an underdog.
  • The Bills are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games after consecutive wins.
  • The Bengals are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Bengals' last eight games. The average combined score in these games was 35.5.
  • The Bills are 11-3 SU and ATS in their last 14 games against the Bengals.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bills' last eight games against the Bengals.
  • The Bengals are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games at home after losing their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bills' last five games.
  • The Bills are 4-20 SU in their last 24 games after consecutive ATS wins.
Cardinals at Eagles
  • The Cardinals are rushing for an NFL-worst 57 yards per game, while the Eagles are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game — 70.8.
  • The Cardinals are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven games at 1 p.m. EST.
  • The Cardinals are 9-36 SU in their last 45 games on the road in October.
  • The Cardinals are 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.
  • The Eagles are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games at home in October.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Cardinals' last five games against the Eagles.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Eagles' last nine games.
  • The Eagles are 7-2 SU in their last nine games at home.
  • The Cardinals are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 7.0 or less.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Cardinals' last 11 games.
  • The Eagles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after consecutive wins.
Chargers at Giants
  • The Chargers are 0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • The Giants are 21-3 SU in their last 24 games at home in October.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Giants' last 10 games after a loss.
  • The Chargers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Chargers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against NFC East teams.
  • The Chargers are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 17 of the Chargers' last 23 games on the road after consecutive home games.
Chiefs at Texans
  • The Texans are 3-21-1 ATS in their last 25 games at night.
  • The Chiefs are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road.
  • The Chiefs are 15-3 SU and ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chiefs' last nine night games.
  • The Chiefs are rushing for an NFL-best 163.5 yards per game.
  • The Chiefs are 3-1 SU in their last four games against the Texans.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Chiefs' last four games against the Texans.
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Texans' last 13 games in October.
  • The Texans are 1-8 SU in their last nine games in Week 5.
Jaguars at Steelers
  • The Jaguars are allowing an NFL-worst 165.5 rushing yards per game, but are allowing an NFL-best 147 passing yards per game.
  • The visiting team is 4-1 SU in the last five games in this matchup.
  • The favored team is 1-8 ATS in the last nine games in this matchup.
  • The Jaguars are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The Steelers are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 5.
  • Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 3 or more TDs in eight of his last 11 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Steelers' last 15 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Steelers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games at home in October.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Jaguars' last nine games after losing as a favorite.
Jets at Browns
  • Over their last three games, the Jets are ranked second in the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The favored team is 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven games in this matchup.
  • The Jets are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Browns.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Jets' last four games against the Browns.
  • The Browns are 1-20 SU in their last 21 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Browns' last 12 games.
  • The Browns are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after winning as an underdog.
  • The Jets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games on the road in October.
  • The Jets are 2-7 SU and ATS in their last nine games on the road.
Packers at Cowboys
  • The Cowboys are 13-31 ATS in their last 44 games as home favorites.
  • The Packers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Cowboys.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Packers' last 11 games. The average combined score in these games was 53.4.
  • The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a win.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Packers' last 20 games against the Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys' last 12 games after a loss.
  • The Packers are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Packers' last seven games in the late afternoon.
  • The Packers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games.
  • The Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games in October.
  • The visiting team is 4-15 SU in the last 19 games in this matchup.
Panthers at Lions
  • The Lions are ranked 28th in the NFL in net yards per play.
  • The Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • The Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home in October.
  • The Lions are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as home favorites.
  • The Panthers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Lions.
  • The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Lions.
  • The Lions are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Panthers' last 11 games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The Panthers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after winning as an underdog.
Ravens at Raiders
  • The Ravens are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Raiders' last five games at home. The average combined score in these games was 60.4.
  • The Raiders are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games after a loss.
  • The Ravens are ranked last in the NFL with just 142.5 passing yards per game.
  • The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last six games on the West Coast.
  • The Ravens are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against the Raiders.
  • The Ravens are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Raiders.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Ravens' last three games against the Raiders.
  • The Ravens are 0-8 SU in their last eight games in October.
Seahawks at Rams
  • The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs the Rams.
  • The Rams are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games at home in October.
  • The Rams lead the NFL with 35.5 points per game.
  • The Seahawks are 18-6 SU in their last 24 games against the Rams.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Seahawks' last 10 games against the Rams. The average combined score in these games was 35.5.
  • The Seahawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Rams' last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Seahawks' last five road games against divisional opponents.
  • The Rams are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Seahawks.
  • The Rams are 1-7 SU in their last eight games in the late afternoon.
  • The Rams are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The visiting team is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games in this matchup.
  • The Seahawks are 34-13 SU in their last 47 games in the late afternoon.
Titans at Dolphins
  • The Titans are 8-26-1 ATS in their last 35 games vs other AFC teams.
  • The Titans are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games on the road.
  • The Titans are 3-1 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Titans' last 12 games on the road against the Dolphins.
  • The Dolphins are 5-1 SU in their last six games at home.
  • The Titans won 30-17 in Miami last season.
  • Miami is last in the NFL with just 8.3 points per game.
  • Miami is ranked last in the NFL in yards per play — 4.2.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Dolphins' last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.
  • The Titans are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Titans' last nine games on the road.
Vikings at Bears
  • The Vikings are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road against the Bears.
  • The Bears are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games on Monday.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Bears' last 12 games as home underdogs.
  • The Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home after winning their most recent home game.
  • The Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in October.
  • The Vikings are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on Monday.
  • The Vikings are 33-14 ATS in their last 47 games.
  • The Vikings are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as favorite.
  • The Vikings are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • The visiting team is 1-9 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup.
  • The Vikings are 4-18-1 SU in their last 23 divisional road games.
  • The Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at night.
  • The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as home underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings' last 11 games against the Bears.
  • The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six divisional games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Vikings' last six games at night.

 

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