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Patriots Struggle to Cover Spreads in Games Cheffers Officiates

Carl Cheffers Super Bowl LI New England Patriots Atlanta Falcons

There is an old sports betting adage that says, “If you aren’t capping refs, you simply aren’t capping.”

OK, that’s not an adage, but personally I’m a firm believer that you need to be at least on nodding terms with the crew that will be officiating the game you want to wager your hard-earned money on. This is most important in baseball more so than any other sport but it’s also beneficial in football and is an aspect that should not go overlooked.

Carl Cheffers and crew will be officiating Super Bowl LI between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons and as I dug into his numbers, I found something that could potentially be of interest if you’re betting Sunday’s game, which you clearly are.

Cheffers has been a referee since the 2008 season and over that stretch, he’s worked eight Patriots games. Now, it should come as no surprise that the Pats have gone 6-2 straight up in those eight games, but they have gone just 2-5-1 against the spread. For a team that has been profitable (55% ATS regular season win rate) in the six different seasons that Cheffers has worked a Pats game (2008-11, 2013, 2015), that stands out.

DateAway (Score)Home (Score)Patriots SpreadClosing TotalTotal Result
10 September 2015Steelers (21)Patriots (28)-7.051.0U
12 September 2013Jets (10)Patriots (13)-11.043.5U
25 September 2011Patriots (31)Bills (34)-7.053.0O
14 November 2010Patriots (39)Steelers (26)+4.544.5O
12 September 2010Bengals (24)Patriots (38)-5.044.5O
11 October 2009Patriots (17)Broncos (20)-3.041.0U
7 December 2008Patriots (24)Seahawks (21)-7.043.0O
7 September 2008Chiefs (10)Patriots (17)-16.043.0U

The Patriots covered the spread in both games Cheffers worked in the 2010 regular season (versus Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh) but that’s it. They have failed to cover the number in three straight Cheffers games (2011 at Buffalo, 2013 versus the New York Jets, 2015 versus Pittsburgh) heading into Super Bowl LI, though they did push last year versus the Steelers.

Now, as evidenced by the chart below, there is nothing out of the ordinary for the games he’s worked this season, (faves 9-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U):

DateAway (Score)Home (Score)Closing Home SpreadClosing TotalTotal Result
15 January 2017Steelers (18)Chiefs (16)-2.545.0U
1 January 2017Panthers (16)Buccaneers (17)-3.044.5U
24 December 2016Bengals (10)Texans (12)-3.041.0U
18 December 2016Saints (48)Cardinals (41)-3.048.0O
11 December 2016Cowboys (7)Giants (10)3.547.0U
4 December 2016Dolphins (6)Ravens (38)-3.541.5O
24 November 2016Vikings (13)Lions (16)-2.042.0U
20 November 2016Eagles (15)Seahawks (26)-6.543.0U
13 November 2016Chiefs (20)Panthers (17)-3.044.0U
30 October 2016Redskins (27)Bengals (27)-3.048.5O
24 October 2016Texans (9)Broncos (27)-8.540.0U
16 October 2016Browns (26)Titans (28)-7.544.5O
6 October 2016Cardinals (33)49ers (21)3.543.0O
2 October 2016Seahawks (27)Jets (17)1.040.0O
25 September 2016Lions (27)Packers (34)-6.547.5O
18 September 2016Jaguars (14)Chargers (38)-3.047.5O
11 September 2016Packers (27)Jaguars (23)4.547.0O

Worth noting, however, is that nice run of UNDERs Cheffers' games have gone on entering Super Bowl Sunday. Seven of the last nine and three straight games have resulted in cashed UNDER tickets thanks to an average of just 38.4 combined points scored per game.

Referee stats and numbers should never be the foundation of your wager, but there's certainly some instances where it can be good support for your bet. The Pats are normally a +.500 ATS team and when you can isolate a number like a 2-5-1 ATS clip like this, it's something that should be noted.

While Carl Cheffers and crew are certainly one of the better and more respected groups in the league, it will be interesting to see if the Patriots' ATS struggles continue with this ensemble working.

No matter where your bets go this Sunday, best of luck.