I knew I liked the Week 6 board. I went 4/6 with a massive hit on the Bears straight up at +240 and if it weren’t for Aaron Rodgers getting suplexed, I probably would’ve gone 5/6.
On that note, let’s get into the picks where I’m once again easing into the week with a TNF play after easily hitting a -120 teaser in the Eagles-Panthers matchup last week.
The Pick: Chiefs moneyline and KC-OAK OVER 46 parlay (+210)
The Stat: The Chiefs are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games as road favorites and the averaged combined score in the Chiefs’ last six road games is 59.5.
I was going to play the Chiefs at -3 all day because I think they’re a lock to win by at least a touchdown Thursday and I probably still will but I’m now convinced this game is also going OVER – hence, the parlay.
Taking the Chiefs on the moneyline reduces our risk a little but still gives us a really nice return at +210. Let’s once again get the week started on a profitable foot. Baby needs a new pair of shoes!
The Pick: Jets SU (+155)
The Stat: The Jets came within inches of potentially beating the New England Patriots last week.
This may be a little bullish after a bulls**t call last week but I’ve made a lot of money on the Jets this year. They’re a much better team than the public perceives and they’ve just got something that works for them.
Miami, on the other hand, sucks. I know they beat the Falcons but that was a trash football game and it was the first time Jay Cutler was able to move the ball since Week 2.
This game is a toss-up and because of that, I’ll take the moneyline value on the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS.
The Pick: 3-team 10-point teaser SF +16, GB +14.5, IND +13.5 (-130)
The Stat: 3-6 point underdogs would have gone 34-7-2 ATS if they’d all been teased 10 points this season.
With underdogs pulling off upsets at a record pace this season, I’m trying something a little different with my teaser. All three teams I’m putting on this card are home underdogs this weekend and they have a combined home ATS record of 5-2.
My luck, this will probably be the week where faves go 15-0.
The Pick: Patriots -3 (-115)
The Stat: The Patriots are 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 at home after losing their most recent home game.
Doesn’t this just seem like one of those spots where the Patriots make a massive statement?
There’s a good chance that the Falcons will be in their own heads about a certain comeback in a certain really big game and after a loss to the Fish, this line seems far too low.
Back the Pats with confidence knowing that the trend of underdogs covering every damn game is about to end.
The Pick: Titans -6 (-105)
The Stat: Dating back to last season, the Browns are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
I don’t love the Titans. I just like to fade the Browns.
Fading the Browns has to be one of the most profitable trends in sports. They just continue to be a horrible football team and they’re behind the 8-ball with a (crappy) rookie quarterback at the helm of the offense for the rest of the season.
Six is a lot of points for the Titans but they’ve got some confidence and momentum built up after putting away a Colts team they hadn’t beaten in 11 matchups.
The Pick: Broncos vS Chargers OVER 40.5 (-110)
The Stat: The Chargers are allowing 152.5 rushing yards per game and the Broncos are averaging 123.6 yards per game.
Honestly, I just really want this game to be a shootout. Philip Rivers is going to have to throw the ball – a lot – if the Chargers’ league-worst rush defense allows CJ Anderson to go wild and either way, that’s leading to points.
40.5 seems really modest for the weapons that both teams have on the offensive side of the football so I’ll be fading the trend that’s seen six of the last seven games in this matchup go UNDER.
Always the contrarian.
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