The Kansas City Chiefs (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) will host the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1, 8-9) on Sunday in the third AFC wild-card matchup as double-digit home favorites at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The Chiefs vs Steelers prediction for this playoff rematch is almost identical to their Week 16 meeting, which the two-time defending AFC champions won 36-10 as 10-point home favorites.
Steelers vs Chiefs Odds & Analysis
The point spread and total have both come down slightly from the Sportsbook numbers, with the latter seeing a more significant drop to 46.5 in early betting. Because this is the postseason, bettors can expect the defenses to have a bigger impact, especially on the Pittsburgh side.
While this may be Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s final game, he will be relying heavily on his defensive teammates to extend his career. It will be interesting to see how the closing odds match up with the Chiefs vs Steelers prediction.
Get the best Steelers vs Chiefs odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.
- Best Spread-110-110PIT+12-12KC
- Best Moneyline+460-600PITKC
- Best Total-110-110Over46.546.5Under
Pittsburgh Hoping Defense Will Keep Game More Competitive This Time Around
The Steelers obviously are a much different team with sacks leader T.J. Watt on the field, and they proved it again last Sunday in a 16-13 overtime victory against the Baltimore Ravens.
Watt tied Michael Strahan’s NFL single-season sacks record with one vs the Ravens, bringing his total to 22.5, also making it five in the past two games. He will be the most important player on the field besides Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who was barely pressured in the last meeting.
Pittsburgh has held opponents below 20 points in each of its last four wins, with the team going a perfect 4-0 ATS in those games and the UNDER cashing each time. That will be the goal in hopes of springing an upset.
Kansas City Looking To Continue Hot Run Following Close Call At Denver
The Chiefs wanted the top seed in the conference and extra rest with the bye, but instead they get to play a Steelers team they dominated in the most recent meeting. Maybe that will help them get back on track defensively, though, after surrendering 58 points in failing to cover their past two games.
Kansas City came from behind to top the Denver Broncos 28-24 last Saturday, falling short of covering as an 11.5-point road favorite. The Chiefs put themselves in position to earn the No. 1 seed with a loss by the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, although that did not happen.
Now they will try to rebound and see if they can win what could be a lower-scoring game that may end a 5-0 OVER run in their past five. The Chiefs vs Steelers pick will likely come down to which team can set the pace.
Steelers vs Chiefs Pick & Insights
Steelers: Keys To Cover
Playing strong defense will be critical to hanging around in this one. Plus, Roethlisberger must avoid turning the ball over against what should be an extra-motivated opposing defense. If this game is low-scoring, Pittsburgh will at least have a solid chance to beat the spread and prove the Chiefs vs Steelers prediction to be wrong.
Chiefs: Keys To Cover
Despite some recent struggles, this Kansas City team has still won nine of 10 and covered six of eight. The AFC West champions have advanced to the Super Bowl the past two years too, so they have that experience to draw from. That said, a fast start and big early lead will be crucial to backing up the Chiefs vs Steelers prediction and covering.