Betting Preview: Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

A sound running game and above-average defense has the Packers as home favorites against the Lions.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Packers opened as 5.5-point home favorites but saw a slight pull-back to Green Bay -4.5. Detroit’s moneyline opened at +177 and the point total at 46.5 before a tick up to 47.5. The OVER has hit in three consecutive Packers games.

Green Bay improved to 4-1 straight up and against the spread after upsetting the Cowboys 34-24 on their home turf. The Lions come off their bye 2-1-1 SU and 3-1 ATS with three straight covers and the OVER hitting in three of four this season.

Green Bay is 15-5 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points, with covers in seven of the past nine. The Lions are 5-5 SU but 7-3 ATS when road dogs of 4.5 points or less, with covers in five of their past six.

Detroit News & Notes

Despite the 3-1 ATS record and the luxury of coming off the bye, this will be the greatest test of the season for the Lions defense. While their offense boasts a top-13 pass and rush offense and Matthew Stafford hasn’t needed to win games solely on the strength of his arm, Detroit’s defense is getting shredded.

The Lions have allowed 281 pass and 125 rush yards per game through their first four games and with Aaron Jones posting career-best numbers against the Cowboys defense, these aren’t the metrics you like to see. Aaron Rodgers is dangerous enough as a passer, but with a pass-run balance like we haven’t seen in years, even if Davante Adams can’t suit up due to his toe injury, the Packers have proved they can put up some points.

The Lions offensive line, which has allowed seven sacks through four games, faces a stiff test. Although the Cowboys offensive line isn’t as stout as it once was, the Packers sacked Dak Prescott three times and hit him eight times. Green Bay was held without a sack two weeks ago. So, its 15 sacks on the season come in just four games.

Green Bay News & Notes

A week after allowing 176 rush yards and two touchdowns to the Eagles, the Packers defense held Ezekiel Elliott to just 62. Granted, as Green Bay built a 31-3 lead, the Cowboys were forced to abandon the run, but when the Packers’ own running back, Aaron Jones, racks up a career-high 182 total yards and four touchdowns, the pressure is off Aaron Rodgers to win the game without his top target. Davante Adams missed the game due to injury, but with an extra day of rest, he could return in time for this Monday night matchup.

Green Bay’s defense failed to produce one turnover against the Bears two weeks ago, but picked off Dak Prescott three times, which they converted into 10 points, aka the difference in the game. When analyzing this box score, try not to get too wrapped up in Amari Cooper’s 226 and Michael Gallup’s 113 receiving yards as those are merely stat compilers when a team falls behind 31-3. The Packers’ best friend at the time was the clock, not concerns over final stat lines.

I would be worried about the 28th-ranked third-down conversion percentage of the Packers offense, but when the Lions allow opposing offenses to convert 45.6 percent of them (27th), the concern dissipates. The Packers defense possesses the 10th-lowest third-down conversion percentage at 36.7.

Betting Pick: OVER 47.5

In their last two games, the Packers and Lions have allowed 29 points per game to high-powered offenses – Eagles (both), Chiefs (DET) and Cowboys (GB). I believe these two squads light up the scoreboard.

For more on the pick, hit me up on Twitter @FreelanceFowler