Despite an unblemished against-the-spread road dog record last season, the Steelers are gifted a touchdown in their Week 1 prime-time matchup against the Patriots.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots (Matchup Report)
Date/Time: September 8, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV Coverage: NBC National Game
Sportsbook Odds: Patriots -6.5 | O/U 53 (Line History)
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Patriots opened as 6.5-point favorites, but that has dipped slightly to New England -6. The Steelers moneyline is +215 and the point total opened at 53 before a small pullback to 51. Pittsburgh was 4-0 ATS as a road dog last season, while the Patriots were 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Pittsburgh News & Notes
Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback, top two running backs and top two receivers are all healthy headed into Week 1. This wasn’t the case when the Steelers covered +2.5 and beat the Patriots 17-10 at Heinz Field last December. Running back James Conner missed the game due to injury and opened the door for Jaylen Samuels’ breakout performance. The rookie back rushed 19 times for 142 yards and caught two passes for 30 yards against the Patriots’ 11th-ranked rush defense.
Ben Roethlisberger was far from elite in that matchup as he finished with a passer rating below 80, but the defense held the Patriots in check as lead running back Sony Michel finished with just 59 rushing yards and New England converted just three of 10 on third down.
The Steelers have been regular-season road dogs of 6 or more points only seven times over the past decade. They are 2-5 straight up but 4-2-1 ATS in those games, including a +7 PUSH at New England back in 2015.
New England News & Notes
Although Rob Gronkowski’s offensive dominance waned somewhat during his final NFL season, he still accounted for better than 15 percent of the New England receiving game.
However, Gronk’s absence won’t be felt nearly as much as that of center David Andrews, who is out indefinitely after blood clots were discovered in his lungs. Without Andrews, the Patriots lose one of their most consistent players, team captain and anchor of an O-line challenged with the task of stopping a Steelers front seven that led the league with 52 sacks last season (tie) and return their entire core along with rookie Devin Bush.
If Bill Belichick’s offensive plan heading into 2019 was to lean more on running back Sony Michel and hammer the opposition between the tackles, without Andrews, it may be time to rethink that plan – especially against the Steelers’ sixth-ranked rush defense of a season ago.
New England is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS, including covers in nine of its last 10, when favored by 6 or more points at home.
Betting Pick: Steelers +6
Perhaps the +6 is bait and Brady and Josh Gordon shock the world in Week 1, but in my mind David Andrews’ absence matters. Consistency at the center position is an often overlooked facet of the game and now Tom Brady must develop a better rapport with backup Ted Karras in quick order.
After watching the Steelers’ final tune-up against the Titans, Roethlisberger and the offense appear to be in a great place after moving on from Bell and Brown. Big Ben will no doubt chuck it all over the yard (the Patriots ranked 22nd against the pass last year) as he works his way to 600 pass attempts again this season.
While I do believe the Patriots can, and likely will, win this game outright, to think they’re six points better than the Steelers with their current roster limitations appears too rich to kick off 2019.
- The Steelers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.
- The Patriots are 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as home favorites.
- Forecast: Temps in the mid-50s, muggy with a 20% chance of rain
