Russell Wilson Is On Pace For A Record-Breaking Season

Russell Wilson is on a historic pace to start the season and is the odds-on favorite to win the 2020 NFL MVP Award. Last week, the Seattle Seahawks quarterback threw five touchdown passes against the Dallas Cowboys, giving him an NFL-record 14 scoring strikes through the first three games of the season.

Now the question is whether Wilson can break Peyton Manning’s single-season passing touchdown record of 55 set back in 2013. According to Sportsbook, Wilson has +400 odds to break Manning’s record this year.

Here is some analysis on the passing touchdown record, and some other prop bets you might want to consider regarding single-season records for passer rating, sacks and receiving yards.

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Will Russell Wilson Break Peyton Manning’s Single-Season Passing Touchdown Record?

Odds as of September 30 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Why Wilson will break Manning’s passing TD record

Russell Wilson is on pace to shatter every single-season quarterback record standing in his way. He is currently on pace to throw 75 touchdown passes over 16 games, which is simply unheard of. Clearly, there is still plenty of football left, and injuries may play a factor. Even if he cools down a little bit, he should be able to eclipse Manning’s benchmark of 55 touchdown passes.

Wilson has four legitimate touchdown threats in Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson and Greg Olsen. With these weapons, and his ability to make plays out of the pocket and throw a perfect deep ball, Wilson has all the tools he needs to break the record. NFL scoring has also gone up 5.4 points per game this season, and the increase in scoring is another factor that suggests Wilson could break the record.

There are a few other things to consider, chiefly the Seahawks’ schedule. Among its remaining opponents, Seattle will face the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams (twice) and both New York teams, all clubs that are ranked in the lower half of the league in defending the pass. This will ultimately benefit Wilson and the passing game as he gets closer and closer to the record.

The other big factor is that the Seahawks defense is definitely their weakest link. They are last against the pass and have given up an average of 28.6 points in their three games. The result is more high-scoring games, which forces Wilson to throw the ball more often.

Why Wilson won’t break Manning’s passing TD record

In 2013, Peyton Manning had his best statistical year with the Denver Broncos. He had four receivers who were able to make plays after the catch, and a defense that was able to get him the football more often. That Broncos defense was tough to move the ball on, and Von Miller was always a threat to come up with a strip sack. This led to more offensive plays for Manning and he capitalized on that; it’s a luxury Wilson does not have.

The argument could also be made that Wilson just doesn’t have the same weapons that Manning had. Denver had Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, four receivers who each had 10 or more touchdowns. It was that combination of players that gave Manning ample options when reading opposing defenses. On the other hand, the Seahawks have two good receivers, a run-first running back and a tight end who is way past his prime.

Can Russell Wilson Break Aaron Rodgers’ Passer Rating Record For A Single Season?

Odds as of September 30 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Why Wilson will break Rodgers’ passer rating record

In 2011, Aaron Rodgers took the league by storm. According to pro-football-reference, he finished with the best passer rating of any quarterback. After three weeks, Wilson’s hot start has led him to a passer rating of 139.0, which is just otherworldly.

He’s done this against two weaker defenses in the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons but has also proven himself against one of the league’s best in the New England Patriots. Wilson is showing that it doesn’t matter what 11 players you put on the other side of the ball; he continues to consistently make accurate throws and is always finding ways to make plays.

Will Aldon Smith Break Michael Strahan’s  Single-Season Sack Record?

Odds as of September 30 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Why Aldon Smith won’t break Michael Strahan’s sack record

Aldon Smith currently leads the NFL in sacks after three games with four. It has come to the surprise of many how well he has played after being out of football since 2015. Smith looks great after a four-year absence, but to think he can keep playing at this pace for the entire season is hard to imagine.

The Cowboys for the early part of the season have been playing from behind. This gives pass rushers much fewer chances to attack the quarterback. Unless the Cowboys right the ship and start playing with a lead, there will be fewer opportunities for Smith to break Strahan’s record.

Will Calvin Ridley Break Calvin Johnson’s Record For Receiving Yards in a Season?

Odds as of September 30 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Why Calvin Ridley won’t break Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record

Calvin Ridley is off to an outstanding second season in the NFL. Despite the fact that his Atlanta Falcons are 0-3, Ridley is second in the league with 349 receiving yards, just seven yards behind DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals.

The Falcons are a bad team, and because of this, they seem to be playing a lot of games in which Matt Ryan needs to throw the ball a lot. But unlike Calvin Johnson when he was in Detroit, Ridley has to compete for targets with Julio Jones. If he can remain healthy, his numbers should be impressive but they will not come close to Johnson’s record 1,964 receiving yards.