The already disappointing start to the 49ers season got worse on Sunday when starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went down with an injury late in their game against the Chiefs. It was confirmed on Monday that he had torn his ACL and will be out for the remainder of the season. CJ Beathard will take his place behind center and try to keep his team from falling apart. They face an uphill battle as a 10.5-point underdog against the Chargers in Los Angeles on Sunday. The total is set at 47.5.
- The 49ers are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog.
- The 49ers are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road in September.
- The Chargers are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games at home after consecutive road games.
CJ Beathard won’t keep up with Philip Rivers, Take the Chargers ATS
Before San Francisco decided to start Jimmy G in Week 13 last season after trading for him at the deadline, CJ Beathard was the team’s starting QB and it wasn’t pretty. In seven games, the Iowa alum had a QB rating of 69.2, with four touchdowns and six interceptions. He started in five of those seven games, and the 49ers were 1-4 SU and ATS in that stretch.
Philip Rivers, on the other hand, is on pace for a career year with the Chargers. Through three games he has a QB rating of 115.7, throwing eight touchdowns and only one interception. He also has an extremely impressive completion percentage of 69.4. Don’t let the Chargers’ 1-2 SU record fool you. Their two losses have come against arguably the top two teams in the league in the Chiefs and Rams.
On top of the injury issues that the 49ers offense is suffering from, they’re historically not able to win as a double-digit underdog, going 0-10 SU and 4-6 ATS the last 10 times their opponent was favored by double-digit points. I feel very comfortable taking LA to beat the 10.5-point spread at home.
The Chargers will be able to load the box on defense
Even though Jimmy G was the focal point of the 49ers offense, it was their running game that shined the brightest through their first three games. Despite losing projected starting running back Jerick McKinnon in preseason, they’ve still managed to put up the second-most rushing yards per game this season with 152.7. While this may seem like good news that they can still thrive without Garoppolo, losing their starting QB is going to hurt their running game almost as much as their passing.
Their potent running attack was partially due to the fact that opposing defenses had to respect the skill set of Garoppolo when he was behind center. Having a defense worry about the pass first will always open up running lanes for the backfield. Now that they have CJ Beathard as the signal-caller, look for the Chargers to load up the box with linebackers and safeties to try to slow down the running game of the 49ers. Make no mistake, San Francisco will still try its best to establish the run game early and often, but without the threat of a competent QB, it will be a tall order against a stacked interior.
49ers on the road with a new QB will be too much for them to overcome
San Francisco has a lot to overcome this week. Not only do the Niners need to prepare a QB to take over the starting role, they also need to travel. They’ve been terrible on the road in recent history during the month of September. They’re 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road in the first month of the season.
The Chargers have been quite the opposite. The last nine times they’ve returned home after consecutive road games, they’ve won all nine SU and are 7-2 ATS. I have no doubt that these trends will continue and Los Angeles won’t have much of an issue covering the spread. This one may get ugly.
What about the OVER/UNDER?
This is one game that I’d stay away from on the total. It’s set at 47.5, but it’s hard to be swayed too heavily in either direction.
Both teams are in the bottom six of the league in points allowed, but the question marks surrounding what the 49ers can do without Jimmy G makes me hesitant to take the OVER. But on the other hand, the Chargers defense has looked lackluster enough without Joey Bosa in their lineup that they may allow just enough points for the OVER to hit.
While I wouldn’t recommend betting on the total at all in this game, if I had to pick one, I would lean toward the UNDER. I have no faith that the 49ers can put forward any kind of offensive showing without their stud QB, and if the Chargers get up big, they may slow down like they did in Week 2 against the Bills.
