The New England Patriots will host former quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7 on Sunday, trying to bounce back as small home favorites after losing as bigger chalk at Gillette Stadium. Despite getting quarterback Cam Newton back in the lineup, the Patriots fell 18-12 to the Denver Broncos as 7-point home favorites last Sunday before the 49ers knocked off the Los Angeles Rams 24-16 as 2.5-point home underdogs on Sunday Night Football.
- Date/Time: October 25, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Gillette Stadium
- TV Coverage: CBS
- Sportsbook Odds: Patriots -3 | O/U 46 (Line History)
- 49ers vs Patriots Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Patriots have lost two home games in the same regular season three times in the past four years (2016, 2017 and 2019), but none of those have occurred in consecutive weeks. Most bettors know how good New England is at Gillette under head coach Bill Belichick, so it would not be surprising to see this number move higher even though there has been early line movement in favor of San Francisco (+2.5). While the 49ers are coming off a nice home victory, they were so bad in losing their previous two games with Garoppolo under center that it may also be hard to trust them in this spot.
San Francisco News & Notes
Garoppolo rewarded head coach Kyle Shanahan’s trust in him – and San Francisco backers – by coming through with his best performance of the season in a key NFC West matchup. He threw for 268 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Los Angeles without getting sacked for the first time this year as well.
That bodes well for the 49ers moving forward, but this will still be a very difficult road game against the Patriots, who traded him away three years ago so Tom Brady could make another Super Bowl run.
New England did make back-to-back Super Bowl appearances after dealing Garoppolo and won one before he made it to the big game himself last year and lost. Because of that situation, many will look at this as a revenge game of sorts for him, and rightfully so.
New England News & Notes
The Patriots did not look like a healthy team last week against the Broncos and it is debatable whether Newton should have even played following his recovery from COVID-19. He may have had flashbacks to facing Denver in Super Bowl 50 as a member of the Carolina Panthers and mostly played like it, throwing for just 157 yards with two interceptions while getting sacked a season-high four times.
The lone bright spot was that he carried the ball 10 times for 76 yards and scored on a one-yard touchdown run midway through the fourth quarter. However, New England was trailing 18-3 at the time, and that touchdown ended up being too little, too late. Newton should only play better the healthier he gets, although the aftermath of COVID-19 continues to be a concern.
Betting Pick: UNDER 46
The defenses for both teams are solid enough to keep this game UNDER the total, and the trends support that play too. San Francisco will be able to key on Newton if running back Sony Michel stays on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and even if he is able to return, he probably will not be at full strength. In addition, Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels know Garoppolo extremely well and will be able to limit him.
- The Patriots are 24-4 SU in their last 28 home games.
- The UNDER is 5-2 in the past 7 meetings.
- The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
