Survive & Advance: Banged-Up Seahawks Dogs Again Against Packers

With Carson Wentz knocked out so early and Josh McCown making his playoff debut, the Seahawks’ 17-9 victory comes fully equipped with a boulder-sized asterisk. The Seahawks (+1) earned the win to improve to 12-5 straight up and 8-8-1 against the spread. Pete Carroll’s crew boasts a 6-2-1 ATS road record heading into their matchup at Lambeau Field.

The Packers spent most of Week 17 in rally mode as they tried to catch the Lions. Green Bay needed a last-second field goal to beat Detroit 23-20. It’s these types of lackluster performances that makes the Packers’ 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS record tough to stomach. Given the way Aaron Rodgers’ offense has performed, targeting the point total appears the safer Packers bet these days.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Packers opened as 3.5-point home favorites before a slight uptick to Green Bay -4. Seattle’s moneyline opened at +160 and the point total at 46.5 before a consensus dip to 46. The total has gone UNDER in the Packers’ last four games with an average combined score of 36.25.

Seattle News & Notes

The Seahawks committed 11 penalties for a loss of 114 yards in their win over the Eagles. This may go without saying, but if they commit that many penalties against the Packers, all bets are off. It’s amazing that a team can be that undisciplined this late in the season.

Philadelphia’s top-ranked rush defense forced Russell Wilson to air it out a little more often. He and DK Metcalf connected seven times for 160 yards and a touchdown. Metcalf set a rookie record for most receiving yards in a playoff game. Green Bay’s pass defense ranks in the middle of the league, but that’s because the Pack are so susceptible to the run.

While Wilson led the Seahawks with 45 rushing yards, Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch combined for 17 carries for just 19 yards against the Eagles’ stout rush defense. If Seattle wants to re-establish the run, Green Bay’s rush defense presents a great opportunity as the Packers rank 23rd against the rush and just allowed the Lions’ backfield committee to rack up 171 yards on 6.8 yards per carry.

The matchup to watch is Seattle’s offensive line against the Packers pass rush. If you remember back to Week 16, Za’Darius Smith destroyed the Vikings O-line and sacked Kirk Cousins 3.5 times and the Packers finished with five sacks. Wilson was sacked a league-high 48 times. Protect the quarterback, stay in the game.

Green Bay News & Notes

After years of esthetically pleasing football, Aaron Rodgers’ Packers are winning ugly. They averaged just 21.7 points per game the final four weeks of the season. With a first-round bye in the playoffs on the line, they needed a 13-point fourth quarter and last-second Mason Crosby field goal to rally and beat the 3-12-1 Lions in Week 17. What? How does that happen?

Rodgers’ 62 percent completion rate during the regular season finished tied with Kyle Allen and Ryan Fitzpatrick (yikes), while his 95.4 QB rating ranked behind Deshaun Watson and just ahead of Carson Wentz. Not one receiver finished with 1,000 or more receiving yards, Davante Adams accounted for 24.8 percent of the receiving yard production, while four different receivers posted 400 to 500 yards. This isn’t what we’ve come to expect from Rodgers and a big reason why their point per game average dipped so significantly.

One bit of good news for Rodgers and running back Aaron Jones is it sounds like offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga is on track to play this weekend once/if he clears concussion protocol. He’ll be needed as Green Bay has focused more on the running game in recent weeks. The Packers averaged 22 more rush yards per game the last three weeks compared to their season-to-date rate of 112.2 – which like so many of Green Bay’s offensive metrics ranks in the middle of the pack.

Green Bay’s offense ranked 24th in third-down conversions this season at just 35.6 percent, behind the likes of Arizona and Cleveland.  However, if they reach Seattle’s red zone, watch out as the Packers converted 64 percent of their RZ trips into touchdowns, the NFL’s sixth-best rate.

Packers: Key Defensive Metric Watch

Opposing offenses converted 38 percent of their third downs against the Packers. Green Bay ranked 16th in this category during the regular season.

Opposing offenses converted 50 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns against the Packers. Green Bay ranked seventh in this category.

Betting Pick: Seahawks +4 & UNDER

After watching the Packers the last four weeks of the season, most signs point to this game coming down to a field goal and the UNDER hitting.