The Bears host the Seahawks in the Week 2 edition of Monday Night Football with both teams looking to shake off 0-1 starts after road losses. Sportsbook as 3-point favorites, the Bears might be more than a little shell-shocked after blowing a 20-point lead to the wrath of Aaron Rodgers but they’ll have to get over it with a very winnable game ahead of them.
- The Seahawks are 11-1 SU with a 14.73 average margin of victory in their last 12 MNF games.
- Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times in Week 1 against the Broncos.
- Doug Baldwin is out indefinitely with a partially torn MCL.
My best bet for Seahawks vs Bears: Bears -3
Before getting torched by a one-legged A-Rod in the fourth quarter of their season opener last Sunday, the Bears showed what they’re capable of defensively, bringing down Rodgers and DeShone Kizer a combined four times while holding the Packers to three points through three quarters. Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith were both impressive in their Bears debuts and I only expect them to get better as they get more acquainted with Vic Fangio’s system.
I’m going to give Chicago the benefit of the doubt for their collapse against Green Bay because it was very clearly the football gods’ will for the Packers to win that one. This Bears team is vastly improved over a year ago and with a competent coaching staff on the sideline this season, their weapons (like Mitch Trubisky) are being utilized more effectively.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, are not improved – they’re much worse. They managed to hang with the Broncos in Denver in Week 1 but that was thanks only to Case Keenum throwing three interceptions and some bad tackling by the Broncos secondary.
Chicago’s D-line is going to chew through Seattle’s awf-fensive (offensive) line with ease and Russell Wilson is once again in bad trouble.
Pete Carroll has said he’s going to feed Chris Carson and the running game Monday and with the Packers rushing for just 69 yards on 18 attempts against the Bears in Week 1, that’s probably not the path to points for the Seahawks.
Chicago covers the number from Sportsbook and then some.
Russell Wilson Must be Extra Dangerous on Monday
While his dominance in prime-time games is well documented (19-4-1 SU with a 105.9 quarterback rating for his career), Russell Wilson’s weapons aren’t what they once were. He’s going to be without favorite receiver Doug Baldwin for at least two weeks and his running backs are extremely unproven.
If the Seahawks are going to have a shot to win or even cover this game, Wilson is going to have to be terrific, if not flawless, and even if he is, I’m not convinced his defense can stop the Bears from scoring.
Wilson does have a spectacular 6-1 SU career record in Monday nighters but this is a different year and a much different Seahawks team.
It’s Prime time for Trends
We all know trends can be silly and this game is the perfect example of why that’s true. There are two or three awesome stats that I could use to justify a bet on either side in this one and that conflict is why my pick analysis was more based on football than it was numbers.
Here are the best trends and stats I found for each team:
- The Seahawks are 24-5-1 SU and 22-5-3 ATS in their last 30 prime-time games.
- The Bears are 12-5 SU in their last 17 MNF games.
- The Seahawks are 17-2-3 in their last 22 games as underdogs of 3 or more points.
- The Seahawks are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs in September.
- The Bears are just 1-6 SU in their last 7 as home favorites.
- The Seahawks have won and covered in 4 straight games against the Bears.
Not to say all trends are bad because they usually develop for a reason but in this case, it was really easy to find contradictory data. Be careful when using numbers to handicap football and always make sure to root them to something in reality before applying them to a wager.
