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If the OddsShark Super Computer becomes a sentient being, we’re all doomed. It’s gone 9-1 against the spread and 8-2 straight up during the 2017 NFL postseason and will more than likely become our robot overlord sooner rather than later if it keeps improving at the rate it has. All Matrix theories aside, the computer is cleaning up and is back one more time this season for its Super Bowl 51 pick and it’s siding with the underdog Atlanta Falcons.
The computer has been riding the Falcons all through the playoffs and correctly predicted that they’d blow out both the Seahawks and Packers. This pick is a little different, however, as the Dirty Birds will now have to face the consensus “best team in football” for the right to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Breakdown of the score
With a predicted score line of 29.3-21.1 for the Falcons, the computer is very confident in Atlanta and I have to agree. I wrote about the three reasons why the Falcons are going to win the Super Bowl, so it appears the computer and I are wired quite similarly. We’ve been on the same page on just about everything this postseason so maybe when the machines rise up, they’ll keep me around as a pet or something.
Another significant note regarding that projected score is that it would not come anywhere close to breaching the record-setting total that opened at 58.5. The public is heavily on the side of the OVER and given how these two offenses have been playing, it’s hard to disagree.
A loss and failure to cover for the Patriots here would be just their fourth ATS loss of the season. Win or lose, that's an incredible record and if you've been backing them, congratulations – you probably don't even need a win here.
Super Bowl 51 Trends
Although the Falcons’ specific trends don’t exactly shine a great light on Atlanta’s SB odds, the underdog has won and covered the last five years at the Super Bowl. I know that’s not incredibly specific to either of these teams but it definitely paints a telling picture. Vegas sets lines very carefully to get the most money on the side they think will lose and Sportsbook the Patriots as a small favorite has definitely done that.
Over 60% of the public is on the Patriots and if the computer’s right, the majority of people betting on a side will be very disappointed when the dust settles on Super Bowl Sunday.
The computer has completely disregarded the Patriots' 4-0 SU and ATS record against the Falcons in their last four meetings and the Dirty Birds' 0-5 SU and ATS record in their last five games as underdogs in the playoffs.
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|Sun||New England Patriots||Atlanta Falcons||21.1||29.3|