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The Pick Six: Super Bowl 53 Edition

The Pick Six: Super Bowl 53 Edition January 31, 2019

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After 256 regular-season games and 10 playoff games, the NFL season will officially come to an end with Super Bowl 53. The New England Patriots will play in their third Super Bowl in a row (fatigue anyone?) and face another NFC upstart in the Los Angeles Rams to challenge them for the crown.

This means it will also conclude my Pick Six articles for the NFL season, which means we are gonna go in full degenerate mode and take some wacky props. To read my betting preview for why the Patriots will win and cover in Super Bowl 53, click here.

All odds courtesy of Bovada

The Pick: OVER 1:47 for National Anthem (-175)

Call it a hunch but I think Gladys Knight will go OVER this time limit for the national anthem mainly because of her age. I’m not knocking the elderly but I’m 34 and I get winded going up the stairs. Now imagine a 74-year-old trying to hit long notes in arguably the biggest gig in her life. Yeah, it’s going to be difficult for Knight to catch her breath, which means she’ll likely stretch out notes instead of rushing through it. The value at -175 isn’t great but the age factor is too hard to ignore for a senior citizen singing the national anthem. So, take the OVER and watch your grandma show her national pride.

NOTE: O/U Line for national anthem has since moved to 1 minute 49 seconds.

The Pick: OVER 300.5 yards passing for Tom Brady (-150)

Like I mentioned in my Super Bowl 53 Quarterback Props article, I think this one goes wayyyyy OVER. TB12 threw for 505 yards vs the Eagles in Super Bowl 52 and is averaging an absurd 433 yards passing over his last three Super Bowl appearances. I’m willing to overlook the Patriots run game and I think that because of the strength of the Rams defensive line, he will be throwing a lot in Super Bowl 53.

If the Patriots get down on the scoreboard at all late in the game, the Pats will throw, throw and throw some more, which makes the line of 300.5 yards passing seem laughable. FYI for the true degenerate, Bovada is also offering a prop on whether either quarterback will throw for 400 yards or more in the game at +200, which is an excellent double-down opportunity.

The Pick: Will there be a Roughing the Passer Penalty? (-140)

Is this prop a joke? If the defenses even breathe on Tom Brady, the flags come out for roughing the passer. Brady was barely touched on his helmet in the fourth quarter vs KC in the AFC title game and the zebras threw a flag on that. Now you have DT Ndamukong Suh playing in the biggest game of his life against Tom Brady? Hell, I wish I could bet on the specific player to get it and I would put all my money on Suh. He’s a great defensive lineman but his overzealous play and rushing after the whistle make me think this will come through easily.

The Pick: Will there be a Successful 2-point Conversion? (+180)

The value on this prop is incredible considering the track record of it hitting during these playoffs. A successful two-point conversion has hit in five of 10 playoff games this year and in two of the last three Super Bowls. Now, this does hinge on some field goals to happen for the score to get screwy but I think with the fact of this being the last game, teams won’t hesitate to go for two knowing this is for the Lombardi Trophy. Plus, the odds are amazing that you could hit this prop and still be profitable if you strike out on others.

The Pick: Tom Brady To Win Super Bowl 53 MVP (+140)

Naturally, if I have the Patriots winning the Super Bowl, TB12 will be the focus. In four of the five Patriots Super Bowl wins, Brady was named MVP. I’ve already mentioned how I think Brady will throw for a lot of yards and that he would be the main reason for why they win. Yes, he is the favorite but he’s the fave for a reason.

The Pick: OVER 7 Receptions for Julian Edelman (-125)

This one should hit mainly because I expect Brady and the Patriots to want to get rid of the ball quickly and often, which makes Edelman the biggest beneficiary. Edelman had double-digit targets in eight of the Patriots’ last 11 games (including playoffs) and had eight catches or more in six of them. Rob Gronkowski will likely be used mainly as a blocker to keep the Rams defensive line at bay, which means the Pats will want to throw quickly over the middle to Edelman and their running backs.