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Atlanta Hopes to Break Losing Streak as Favorite

The Atlanta Falcons are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as a betting favorite. Being a favorite against Tampa Bay could help break this streak, however, as the favorite has gone 19-2 SU in the last 21 games between these two division rivals. Atlanta lost both games to Tampa Bay in 2015, losing by three points at home and four points on the road.

Shark Bites
  • The Falcons are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 3.0 or more.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-13 SU in their last 14 games after winning the previous game in a matchup.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in September.

With rookie Jameis Winston under center, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played their way into playoff contention last season with a 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS through the first 12 games of the year. But the team ended the year on an 0-4 SU and ATS skid, picking up their last win of the season on December 6 against Atlanta.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has historically been a significantly better quarterback at home than on the road, owning a 96.3 passer rating at home compared to an 86.3 passer rating on the road. Ryan had one of the worst seasons of his career last season, putting up his lowest quarterback rating (89.0) since 2009 and his lowest touchdown pass total (21) since his rookie season in 2008.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Sportsbooks, including Bovada, had set the Atlanta Falcons as -3-point favorites on the opening line for this contest. The total was hovering around 48 earlier in the week (check for the current over-under lines at MyBookie).

Odds Shark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game pick a 28-15 victory for the Falcons. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Supporters of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have seen them go 6-10 and 7-9 ATS so far this season, while the Atlanta Falcons are at 8-8 and 6-10 ATS. In totals betting, the Falcons are 2-13-1, while the Buccaneers are 9-7. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Tampa Bay injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at Odds Shark it's the No. 20-rated Atlanta Falcons and the No. 23-rated Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Atlanta Falcons No. 21-ranked offense (21.19 PPG) against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks No. 26 at 26.06 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 273.88 yards per game, more than the Buccaneers give up through the air (240 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature the league's No. 10-rated road run defense, allowing 101.63 yards per game. The Atlanta Falcons, meanwhile, ranks No. 18 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Jameis Winston's 325-yard performance through the air wasn't enough last time out, as Carolina earned a 38-10 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium.

In Atlanta's last outing, Matt Ryan threw for 334 yards in a losing cause against the Saints, 20-17 at Georgia Dome.

Betting Trends
  • Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
  • Tampa Bay is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
  • Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
  • Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Tampa Bay at Arizona, Sunday, September 18th
Atlanta at Oakland, Sunday, September 18th