No Pain, No Gain: Titans Control Playoff Destiny at Texans

The Titans blew a 14-0 lead in their 38-28 Week 16 loss to the Saints. Tennessee heads into the regular-season finale 8-7 straight up and 8-7 against the spread as they’ve truly been a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma for bettors this season.

Despite four Jameis Winston interceptions and five Tampa Bay turnovers, the Texans (-3) could only muster a 23-20 PUSH against the Buccaneers last Saturday. Houston is 10-5 SU but just 7-7-1 ATS.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Houston opened as a 1-point home favorite, but with little to play for, the spread has flipped to the Titans as 5.5-point road favorites. The Texans moneyline opened at -111 but it too has flipped to +210 or higher at most books we track. The point total opened at 49 before a slight dip to 47. The total has gone OVER in eight of the Titans’ last nine games with an average combined score of 54.89.

For the Titans to clinch the AFC’s final playoff spot, they need one of two things to happen Week 17:

1) Beat the Texans
or
2) The Steelers and Colts BOTH lose

Already the AFC South division champs, Houston is currently the No. 4 seed. However, if the Texans beat the Titans and the Chargers upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead, Bill O’Brien’s squad would move into the No. 3 seed, which appears to be his focus.

O’Brien said Texans will play to win against Titans when asked if he’ll rest players even though they have an outside chance at third seed.

— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) December 21, 2019

This is funny because the Chargers-Chiefs game will be over before the Titans-Texans kickoff and if Kansas City wins, playing starters will be moot.

Tennessee News & Notes

Derrick Henry was inactive against the Saints with a hamstring injury. Chances are he returns for the season finale with Tennessee facing a win-and-they’re-in scenario. The Titans workhorse had averaged 137 rush yards per game in his previous five before missing Week 16. At 271 carries to date this season, it’s not a total surprise that Henry’s limping into the postseason.

One of the biggest surprises of 2019, Ryan Tannehill has averaged 260.6 pass yards and has 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions over his past six games. The Titans are 4-2 in those contests. Considering Jameis Winston just lit up the Texans secondary for 335 yards and kept Tampa Bay in the game despite those five turnovers, it appears to be a primo matchup for Tannehill.

To be fair, Houston’s secondary held Tannehill to a season-low 61 percent completion rate in their first meeting when the Titans quarterback passed for 279 yards, two touchdowns and a pick.

Wide receiver Corey Davis is in the concussion protocol. In his absence, Tajae Sharpe broke out for five receptions, 69 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints.

Houston News & Notes

Handicapping the Texans is tricky because I’m not sure how much I believe O’Brien when he says he’s playing his starters. Will they start the game? Maybe. Will they play in the second half? Doubtful. If the Chiefs beat the Chargers earlier in the day, there’s no reason to believe the Texans try to beat the Titans when it benefits them in no way.

Oft-injured Will Fuller has already been ruled out with a groin injury. He caught five balls for 61 yards in the Texans’ win over the Titans a few weeks ago. Linebacker Benardrick McKinney and defensive end Jacob Martin are both questionable.

In their first meeting, Houston nearly blew a 14-0 halftime lead and Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions inside the Titans’ five-yard line. So, the Texans’ 24-21 win could have looked much different had Watson avoided costly red-zone turnovers.

Betting Pick: Titans -5.5

Tennessee is a better-coached team with more to play for in Week 17. The Titans elected to rest Henry in Week 16, which should mean he’ll go no matter what against the Texans. Tannehill with his top offensive weapon can win by a touchdown at Houston.