Commanders vs Giants Picks & Odds: New York Looks to Break First Skid

The New York Giants (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) will attempt to win for the first time in three games on Sunday when they host the Washington Commanders (7-5, 7-4-1) as small home underdogs in another key NFC East matchup. The Giants are coming off a 28-20 loss to the Dallas Cowboys but covered as 10-point road underdogs on Thanksgiving Day, while the Commanders have won three in a row and six of seven after a 19-13 win over the Atlanta Falcons as 3.5-point home favorites last Sunday.

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Commanders vs Giants Sportsbook Odds

Washington has been one of the biggest surprises this season as the forgotten team in the division alongside the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas and New York. The Commanders are up to -1.5 in early betting action while the total has dropped slightly down to 40.5 as they continue to play solid defense.

Washington has not allowed more than 21 points since suffering a 25-10 loss at Dallas back in Week 4, and the team is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven too. The Giants are trending down following consecutive losses for the first time this season, and they are also 0-2 in their first two divisional games.

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Washington Keeps Winning With Heinicke Under Center

His numbers might not be pretty, but the only one that really matters for Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke is his 5-1 record as a starter this season. Since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz, Heinicke has thrown for 1,169 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

Wentz has been cleared to return, but Washington head coach Ron Rivera likes what his team has done with Heinicke, who plays with a chip on his shoulder and just continues to win.

Surprisingly, this will be only the second divisional matchup for Heinicke in seven starts so far, as he led the Commanders to a 32-21 upset of the previously unbeaten Eagles as 11-point road underdogs in Week 10.

New York Needs Running Game to Get Back on Track

The Giants have one of the NFL’s best running backs on their roster in Saquon Barkley, who looked like a lock for the league’s Comeback Player of the Year honors early on. However, Barkley has totaled 26 carries for 61 yards and one touchdown during the team’s two-game skid to put that award campaign on hold.

By comparison, New York quarterback Daniel Jones has 10 carries for 64 yards and one touchdown over that same stretch, so the team must get Barkley going in order to make a run at the playoffs. A loss to Washington here would put the team a half-game behind the Commanders in the NFC East standings.

Commanders: Keys To Victory

Washington’s defense has been consistently good lately and could get defensive end Chase Young back for this one. Young was listed as questionable prior to last week’s game after getting activated from injured reserve following a torn ACL suffered a little over a year ago, but he was ultimately ruled out. The Commanders could use his added presence to bolster the pass rush, and even without him they have been good enough to get the job done. If they continue to force turnovers like they did to seal last week’s victory and Heinicke does not turn the ball over, another win and cover are likely to happen.

Giants: Keys To Victory

While it would be great for New York to get Barkley going, Jones is the guy who must step up in this spot and outplay Heinicke. Washington beat Atlanta last week by outgaining its opponent on the ground and would prefer to play that style of game. The Giants need Jones to make plays with his arm in addition to his legs, and he is capable of making that happen. He is the better signal-caller and can be the difference-maker.

NFL Computer Pick: Giants +2.5

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