Welcome back to the Monday Night Football preview, where I’ve dedicated myself to making you money. 4-0 with my MNF picks this season, I’ll have to come back down to earth at some point but I don’t think it’s this week because I really like ANOTHER prime-time teaser for Redskins-Saints.
Sportsbook with one of the biggest spreads on the Week 5 slate (and the second-highest total), Sportsbooks are low on Washington coming off a bye week and with the Redskins’ 2-8 ATS record in their last 10 games after a bye, that makes sense but I don’t think it’s the whole story. Let’s break it down.
- The Saints are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five prime-time games.
- The Redskins have the second-best scoring defense in the NFL (14.7 points against per game).
- The Saints are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites of 6.5 or more points.
My Best Bet: Redskins +12.5 & UNDER 58.5 (6-Point Teaser)
There are a lot of things I like about the Redskins this week and I’ve gone back and forth on whether or not to take the points but I’ve decided to tease Washington with the UNDER on a total I think is too high.
Redskins Have Stopped Good Quarterbacks
Holding offenses led by Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck to 38 total points in their last two games, Washington will likely not be intimidated by Drew Brees in this spot. Their defensive stats are a little skewed by that Sportsbook game against Sam Bradford and the Cardinals but this ball-stopping unit is legit and they’ll prove why in the Big Easy on Monday night (I hope).
Allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game, the Redskins should be able to neutralize the Saints’ aerial threats and make New Orleans beat them on the ground. Sean Payton will regain the services of Mark Ingram in this one and Washington’s rush defense hasn’t been truly tested as yet but if both teams commit to the run like I’m expecting, the clock will run all night – helping this game stay UNDER.
Saints Have Been Miserable As Big Favorites
Covering at a rate of just 13.3 percent over their last 15 games as underdogs of 6.5 or more points, the Saints have not been living up to Sportsbooks’ standards and this feels like another spot where they’re laying too many points.
I’m always wary when a line sits at 6.5 or 2.5 for long periods of time and that’s exactly what’s happened here. Books are trying to entice money on the New Orleans spread by dropping it from its Sportsbook number of 7 and while that doesn’t guarantee a cover for the Redskins, it’s important to note.
The Redskins were facing a similar situation in Week 3 against Green Bay when they closed as 2.5-point underdogs. Money was heavily on the side of the Packers and I was very suspicious with the thinking that Aaron Rodgers just needed to win by a field goal and look what happened – Washington covered the spread by 16.5 points in a straight-up win.
Sportbooks are begging you to take the Saints at this line for a reason: they think the Redskins keep it close.
New Orleans is an Overrated Home-Field Advantage
0-2 ATS at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season, home hasn’t been nearly as sweet for the Saints as it’s purveyed by mainstream media. Yes, they score points at home but at just 16-14 SU in their last 30 games, results have been a virtual coin flip and covering the spread has been nearly impossible (8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home favorites).
Alex Smith is also 3-1 ATS in his last four games off a bye week and that should not be underrated. That one loss came in a complete train wreck of a game against the Giants in New York last season that saw record high winds at MetLife Stadium. In the controlled environment of the Superdome, the weather won’t be a factor.
