Welcome to The Pick Six. My betting colleague Rob Trites has decided to give me the honor of taking over The Pick Six column for the 2018 NFL season and I’m happy to oblige.
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll give you my six favorite plays that are sure to get you some sweet cash. So, without further ado, here we go with Week 1!
All lines courtesy of Sportsbook
The Pick: Ravens -7 vs Bills
I just don’t see how the Bills will score. Nathan “Five-Pick” Peterman is the starting QB for Buffalo, which should have the Ravens defense licking its chops. Baltimore only allowed 18.6 points per game last season (ranked sixth) and when the Ravens hosted the Bills in Week 1 in 2016, Buffalo could only manage seven points. That 2016 squad was much more talented than this 2018 version so it could be a long season for Bills Mafia.
The Pick: Texans vs Patriots - OVER 51 points
I wrote a betting preview about this game if you want to read further but I love the OVER in this one. When Deshaun Watson was in the lineup for the Texans last season (six games), their offense averaged over 30 points per game. Couple that with the Patriots averaging just under 30 points a game in Foxborough in 2018 (including playoffs) and this one feels like free money.
The Pick: Seahawks vs Broncos UNDER 43
This could very well be a battle of who blinks first. Denver’s defense will be much improved in the pass-rush department by adding Bradley Chubb to pair with Von Miller. The Broncos should be able to keep Russell Wilson in the pocket and not let him break out and do damage. The Broncos offense only averaged 18.1 points per game last season (ranked 27th) and adding QB Case Keenum may not move the needle enough for Denver to score a ton of points. The total may get close to 43 but I think this game gets tight in the second half and ends up in the 38-40 combined point range.
The Pick: Giants +3 vs Jaguars
I’d like to remind bettors that Jacksonville’s much-hyped defense allowed over 116.3 yards per game on the ground (ranked 21st) and the Giants have a shiny new toy in RB Saquon Barkley. Analysts like to pretend that the Jags were some juggernaut because they beat up on the Steelers but the reality is that they were 10-6 SU last year and lost some ugly road games to the Jets and Cardinals (4-4 SU on the road). I think the G-Men bounce back and make a statement in this game.
The Pick: Chiefs +3 vs Chargers
We can’t project the future without knowing our history (or however that saying goes) and history is not on the Chargers’ side. Los Angeles has lost eight straight games (average loss margin: 12.3 points per game) to the Chiefs and hasn’t beaten Kansas City since 2013. I know the Chargers are everyone’s favorite darling to make some noise in the AFC but they are snakebitten when it comes to playing their divisional rival. The Chargers were 9-3 SU over their last 12 regular-season games last season with all but one win coming against a team with a losing record (the exception was Buffalo) and each loss coming against a playoff team. Bet on the Chargers at your own peril.
The Pick: Rams -4.5 vs Raiders
Call this the Gruden Grudge but I’ve never liked Jon Gruden as a head coach and now the Raiders just traded their best defensive player in Khalil Mack. For a defense that allowed an average of 241.1 yards through the air last season (ranked 26th), maybe you don’t want to get rid of a top-five pass rusher in the NFL? Especially when you face last season’s No. 1-ranked offense. The Rams should run over the Raiders in this tilt and when they were favored by 4.5 points or more last year, they went 4-1 SU and ATS in those games.
