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Week 1 NFL Betting Trends and Stats Primer

Week 1 NFL Betting Picks and Stats

Betting on Week 1 NFL games can be a real son of a bitch. Or, with proper preparation, it can be the son of kind-hearted and hard-working parents who encourage their son to chase his dreams and support him in his extracurricular activities. What makes Week 1 – or even the first few weeks of a season – tricky is the amount of turnover from the previous season. And I’m not just talking about the big names that changed uniforms. Many teams have new play-callers on the sidelines who will have a major impact, either positive or negative, on their teams this season.

That’s why we need to practice a bit of caution with the trends and stats we rely on to help make our picks since that data is being carried over from previous seasons. But, we need this data as justification for our predictions, so what is a bettor to do?

My advice is to not rely too heavily on stats and trends for teams with new head coaches as those teams will most likely play a much different style of football from previous seasons. However, I personally consider historic data for teams with longstanding head coach/QB combos such as the Patriots, Steelers and Seahawks.

With all that said, I’d also suggest that bettors (especially new bettors) ease into the season with just a few bets. There’s no need to bet every game and just as the teams have a preseason to prepare, bettors should get some reps in while the teams take a few weeks to reveal their true identities.

Below you’ll find some interesting trends and stats for every game this week. This article will be posted every Thursday, so be sure to come back each week and use my Betting Primer as a weapon in betting tool belt. 

Good luck and KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

My best bets for Week 1:

Based primarily on the data below, here’s my favorite bets for Week 1 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, September 6:

  • Dolphins +1.5
  • OVER 21.5 for Dolphins team total
  • Steelers -4
  • UNDER 20 for Browns team total
  • Chiefs +3.5
  • Cowboys +3
  • Packers -7.5 (more on this pick here)
  • Alvin Kamara to score a TD -200

Week 1 trends and stats

Jets at Lions
  • The Jets were 11-4-1 ATS in the first half of games last season.
  • The Lions won by 7 or more points in seven of their nine wins last season.
  • The Jets lost by 7 or more in eight of their 11 losses last season.
  • The Jets ranked 31st in net yards per play on the road last season.
  • The Jets are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.
  • The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on Monday.
  • The Jets are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 12.6)
  • The Lions are 6-1 SU in their last seven games in Week 1.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Lions' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 49.56)
Rams at Raiders
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Rams' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 54.38)
  • Jared Goff threw 18 TDs and just 2 INTs on the road last season.
  • The Rams led the league in points per game on the road last season (32.8).
  • The Raiders are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games in Week 1.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Raiders' last seven games on Monday.
  • The Raiders are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games in September.
  • The Rams are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games at night.
  • The Rams are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven Monday night games.
Falcons at Eagles
  • The Super Bowl winner in the first game of the following season is 10-5-2 ATS over the last 17 seasons.
  • The Eagles allowed a league-low 12.4 points per game at home last season.
  • The Falcons are 4-0 SU & ATS in the last two seasons as September road dogs.
  • The Falcons are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at night.
  • The Eagles are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Falcons are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Eagles.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Falcons' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 33.86)
  • Nick Foles beat Tom Brady in the Super Bowl.
  • The Eagles were 11-4-1 ATS in the first half last season.
Steelers at Browns
  • The Steelers are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Browns averaged a league-low 12.3 points per game at home last season.
  • The Browns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games at home.
  • The Browns are 0-17 SU in their last 17 games. (Avg losing margin: 10.53)
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Steelers' last 11 games against the Browns. (Avg combined score: 41.0)
  • The Steelers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games on the road against the Browns.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Browns' last 13 games at home. (Avg combined score: 36.69)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Steelers' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 37.63)
Texans at Patriots
  • At home last season including the playoffs, Tom Brady threw 23 TDs and just 2 INTs.
  • The Texans are 0-7 SU in their last seven games against the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 16.14)
  • The Patriots are 19-8-3 ATS in their last 30 regular-season home games.
  • The Patriots ranked second in points per game last season with 28.9. The Texans allowed the most points per game last season with 27.2.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Texans' last 10 games against the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games against AFC South teams.
  • The Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Texans are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 13.86)
49ers at Vikings
  • The Vikings are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home.
  • The Vikings allowed 13.8 points per game at home last season — second-best in the NFL.
  • The 49ers went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starter last season, averaging 28.8 points per game.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the 49ers' last six games against the Vikings. (Avg combined score: 33.17)
  • The 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road against the Vikings. (Avg losing margin: 14.6)
  • The Vikings led the league in net yards per play at home last season.
  • The 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on the road against the Vikings.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo went on a date with an adult film actress during the offseason.
  • The Vikings are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 13.83)
  • The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road.
Bengals at Colts
  • The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1.
  • The Colts ranked last in net yards per play at home last season.
  • Andy Dalton’s QB rating was 19 points higher in road games last season compared with home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Colts' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 34.88)
  • The Bengals are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road against the Colts. (Avg losing margin: 17.5)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals' last five games on the road against the Colts.
  • The Colts are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Bengals are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games as underdog.
Bills at Ravens
  • The Ravens are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1.
  • The Ravens are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The Bills are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as underdog.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bills' last seven games against the Ravens. (Avg combined score: 34.57)
  • The Bills are 0-4 SU in their last four games on the road against the Ravens. (Avg losing margin: 8.75)
  • Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in a game last season and was heavily ridiculed by internet users.
  • The favored team is 11-3 SU in the last 14 games in this matchup.
  • The Bills are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
Titans at Dolphins
  • The Dolphins are 42-18 SU in their last 60 games at home in September.
  • In Ryan Tannehill and Adam Gase's only season together in 2016, the Dolphins went 6-1 SU in Tannehill home starts and averaged 27 points per game.
  • Marcus Mariota has a 69.1 QB rating on the road in 2017 with 11 interceptions and just five TD passes.
  • The Dolphins averaged 11.7 more points at home in 2017 than on the road.
  • The Titans are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins are 11-6-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Dolphins' last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 48.09)
  • The Titans are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games on the road against the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Titans' last 13 games on the road against the Dolphins.
Jaguars at Giants
  • This is just the second time since 2007 that the Giants are a home dog in September (last was 2013 vs Denver).
  • The Giants ranked 29th in net yards per play last season. The Jags ranked 4th.
  • The Giants allowed the second-most points per game at home last season (26.1)
  • The Giants are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.
  • The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Giants.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Giants' last 12 games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.75)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Jaguars' last nine games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs NFC opponents.
Buccaneers at Saints
  • New Orleans averaged the most points per game at home last season with 30.2. The Bucs allowed the most points per game on the road last season with 29.2.
  • The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games at home. (Avg winning margin: 10.25).
  • In two games vs the Bucs last season, Alvin Kamara had 280 total yards and 3 TDs.
  • The Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs their division at home.
  • The Saints ranked 1st in net yards per play last season. Tampa Bay ranked 26th in net yards per play on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Saints' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 52.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Buccaneers' last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 51.67)
  • The Buccaneers are 0-7 SU in their last seven games as road underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit underdog.
Chiefs at Chargers
  • The Chiefs are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Chargers. (Avg winning margin: 12.38)
  • In two games vs KC last season, Philip Rivers had 1 TD and 6 INTs with a 42.9 QB rating.
  • The Chiefs ranked 1st overall in net yards per play on the road last season.
  • The Chiefs are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 divisional road games.
  • The Chargers are 4-16 SU in their last 20 divisional games.
  • The Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Chargers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs' last eight games against the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 39.88)
  • The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chargers' last six games. (Avg combined score: 35.0)
  • The Chiefs are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in September.
Cowboys at Panthers
  • The Cowboys are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 September road games.
  • Dallas ranked 3rd in net yards per play on the road last season. Carolina ranked 30th in net yards per play at home.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Panthers.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Panthers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 52.5)
  • The Panthers are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 36.33)
  • The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
Redskins at Cardinals
  • The Redskins are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against the Cardinals.
  • The visiting team is 0-6 SU in the last six games in this matchup.
  • The Cardinals are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games in September.
  • The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Cardinals' last 20 games at home. (Avg combined score: 42.75)
  • The Redskins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
Seahawks at Broncos
  • The Seahawks are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 September road games.
  • The Broncos are 40-12 SU in their last 52 games at home.
  • The Broncos are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games in September.
  • The Seahawks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Seahawks' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.5)
  • Seattle allowed the second-fewest points per game on the road last season (17.2).
Bears at Packers
  • The Bears went 0-3 SU in divisional road games last season, losing by an average of 14.6 points.
  • Aaron Rodgers has a 27-17-1 ATS record in prime-time regular-season games.
  • The Bears are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against the Packers.
  • The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against the Packers.
  • Mitchell Trubisky had a 68.9 QB rating on the road in 2017.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Bears' last nine games against the Packers. (Avg combined score: 50.0)
  • The Packers are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The Packers allowed 7.6 fewer points per game at home last season compared with on the road.
  • The Packers are 25-7-1 SU in their last 33 games against their division at home.
  • The Bears are 0-9 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 10.11)
  • The Bears are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bears' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 33.8)

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