Now that’s more like it. I made a great comeback in Week 4 with my NFL picks by going 5-1 and the only game that tripped me up was the Buccaneers vs Bears game that saw Mitch Trubisky single-handedly kill my UNDER bet with six touchdown passes.
But just like last week, we need to have a short-term memory if we want to have long-term success and not get too high or too low.
Each week during the NFL season, I give you my six favorite plays on the moneyline, spread or total. Here we go with The Pick Six for Week 5!
The Pick: OVER 57 – Falcons vs Steelers
I wrote the betting preview for this game and when trying to find an edge for the spread, it was nowhere to be found. Both of these defenses have been horrendous through four games, allowing close to 30 points per game, and both offenses rank in the top five in the NFL. It may be the highest Sportsbook total of the week but I like this game to be a shootout with it potentially topping 70 points.
The Pick: UNDER 49 - Jaguars vs Chiefs
The NFL’s best offense vs the league’s best defense means something has to give and I’m siding with the defense. The Jaguars are allowing the fewest number of points in the league and have the best pass defense, allowing only 164 yards per game through the air. Sacksonville saw the Broncos’ recipe to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense in check and that’s to pressure the QB and let your DBs do the work. Well, the Jags secondary should shut down the deep threats and they’ll match Jalen Ramsey with Travis Kelce to neutralize the options over the middle. I think this game finishes in the low 40s for a combined score.
The Pick: Jaguars +3 vs Chiefs
Much like I mentioned with the UNDER pick above, I think the Jaguars upset the apple cart and win this game outright. That being said, I do like the 3-point cushion in case of KC backdooring another victory as it did in Denver. Jacksonville has only lost one game this season – to the Titans, who scored zero touchdowns in the victory. The Chiefs defense is not the Titans’ and the Jags should be able to put up some points at Arrowhead Stadium and pull off the upset.
The Pick: Eagles -3 vs Vikings
I have no doubt that the Vikings will score some points this time around after only scoring seven in last year’s NFC title game but their defense has left a really bad taste in my mouth after being a juggernaut last season. The Vikes are allowing almost 30 points per game over their last five and they think they can stop the Eagles at home? Get out of here. Philly is the most dominant home team in the NFL in recent memory (sorry, Seattle) as the Eagles have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games at Lincoln Financial Field and are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 home games when favored by 3 or more.
The Pick: UNDER 45.5 – Cowboys vs Texans
I tailed my colleague Joe Osborne again with his betting preview and he shares my views on how this game will unfold. I expect the battle of Texas to be a low-scoring affair and it mainly has to do with the ineptitude of the Cowboys offense. Dallas is only averaging 16.8 points per game and even though they scored 26 in Week 4 vs the Lions, it’s been a struggle for the ’Boys to put up points. While bettors’ most recent memory of the Texans is them dropping 36 points on the Colts, they pay me around here to remind you that Houston was a bottom-five offensive team prior to that onslaught. I think the Texans offense is still a work-in-progress and is going against an up-and-coming defense so I don’t foresee a ton of points.
The Pick: Rams -7 vs Seahawks
I’ve been on the Rams every week and they have yet to let me down. The Rams were my Super Bowl pick at the start of the season and as I said in my Week 2 article, I would take them to cover any game of 7 points or less against any team except New England. Now, they get to go to CenturyLink Field to face a Seahawks squad that is horrendous offensively, allows the most sacks and has a defense that doesn’t resemble anything close to the Legion of Boom. Some may be cautious because it’s a divisional game in front of a raucous crowd with the 12th man in Seattle but Los Angeles crushed the Seahawks 42-7 in Seattle last year so I expect the same result.
Gilles’ record after four weeks: 11-13