With everything going on in the NFL surrounding COVID-19, it’s good to get back at examining the games and looking at player prop bets. You can do all the research and analysis when it comes to making player prop bets, but sometimes you just have to go with your gut.
For Week 5, I give my analysis on: why quarterback Deshaun Watson will have a big day; an interesting quarterback matchup; one of the best tight ends in the game continuing to produce; a backup running back who has played very well; and a Dallas Cowboys receiver to have over 100 yards.
Here are my favorite Week 5 player prop bets from Sportsbook:
Week 5 NFL Prop Bets to Target
Deshaun Watson to Throw 4 Touchdown Passes (+380)
The big news this week out of the NFL was that the Houston Texans had fired head coach Bill O’Brien. The Texans have started the season 0-4, and it was also reported that J.J. Watt got into a heated argument with O’Brien that resulted in his firing. Watson lost his favorite target, DeAndre Hopkins, in a trade in the offseason, and his numbers have suffered. Watson is only completing 65 percent of his throws and has six touchdowns to three interceptions.
This week he faces the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that has struggled to limit opponents in both the pass and rush game. Watson should be able to take advantage of the poor Jaguars' defense and have a big day. I expect him to be the best player on the field, utilizing his legs and his arm. Will Fuller has emerged as the team’s No. 1 receiving target and will also be in line for a big game against a pass defense that is ranked 24th in the league.
Mike Davis OVER 58 Receiving Yards (+181)
When Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury, the thought was that the Carolina Panthers would have major problems with their running game. However, McCaffrey’s replacement, Mike Davis, has done a tremendous job in his absence. Last week against the Arizona Cardinals, Davis finished with 111 total yards, including 84 on the ground.
This week the Panthers face an Atlanta Falcons team that has been shredded by running backs. Last week against Green Bay, Packers running backs combined to catch 13 passes for 135 yards and a touchdown. Look for Teddy Bridgewater to take advantage of the 31st-ranked defense and utilize Mike Davis in the passing game.
Amari Cooper OVER 95 yards (+127)
The Dallas Cowboys are not the team people thought they were. They give up the most points in the league on defense, and because of this, they have to put up a lot of points. Last week, I was high on Michael Gallup and he just didn’t get enough targets to produce. This week, I’m going with a guy who gets plenty of targets and receptions. Amari Cooper leads the team in both receptions and yards. He has put up more than 80 yards in each of Dallas’s four games and is averaging 100 yards per game on the season.
The Cowboys’ opponents this week are the New York Giants. The Giants might be 0-4 but they do play well on defense. They are ranked eighth in team defense and ninth against the pass. Even in a tough matchup that’s a must-win for both teams, I expect Dak Prescott to target Cooper early and often. It might not be the high-scoring game we have been accustomed to this season with the Cowboys, but if there is one person who can be trusted to produce, it’s No. 19 Amari Cooper.
George Kittle OVER 5.5 receptions (-155)
Tight end George Kittle returned to the San Francisco 49ers lineup last week after missing multiple games with a knee sprain. What did he do in his return? Just catch 15 passes for 183 yards and a touchdown. Kittle has shown over the last few seasons that he is to be talked about alongside Travis Kelce as the top players at their position. It seems that it doesn’t matter who’s throwing him the ball, he will continue to rack up receptions.
It was announced yesterday, that Jimmy Garoppolo will suit up and start this week. Their opponents, the Miami Dolphins, do a pretty good job against opposing tight ends, giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points. That should change this week as Kittle is primed to have a big day. The 49ers don’t have a lot of options for catching the ball and will need to utilize Kittle as much as possible against the 28th-ranked passing defense.
Head-to-Head Most Passing Yards
Jared Goff (-270)
Kyle Allen (+170)
Kyle Allen is making his season debut this weekend for the Washington Football Team. It was a bit of a surprise to see head coach Ron Rivera bench Dwayne Haskins in favor of Allen. However, Rivera also did see first-hand what Allen is capable of. Last year, in his first four starts for the Carolina Panthers he was 4-0, completed 65 percent of his passes, and had a QB rating of 106.6. He also threw seven touchdowns to zero interceptions.
Allen will be in tough against Aaron Donald and the LA Rams defense. The Rams are already making their third east coast road trip of the season, and the miles this team has had to fly might catch up to them this weekend.
Jared Goff has not been asked to do much this year. His Rams are 3-1 but narrowly squeaked out a win last week against the awful New York Giants. Goff completed 25 of 32 passes for just 200 yards last week, and this week he goes up against the 7th ranked pass defense.
I like Allen at +170 to have more passing yards in what is expected to be a low-scoring game. Washington will most likely play from behind for most of the game, and Allen will need to air the ball out, while the Rams will focus on keeping the ball on the ground.
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