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2020 Presidential Odds: Analysis, Betting Information and Tips

As an alternative to interpreting infinite United States election polls and the opinions of dozens of media pundits, why not bet on the election yourself?

Odds Shark began tracking 2020 presidential betting odds when they first opened last summer and explained how to bet on politics during this election cycle and several before it.

Way back on July 11, 2019, President Donald Trump was the favorite to win, while Democratic Senator Kamala Harris enjoyed the second-best odds. Harris’ strong performance in the first Democratic debate knocked former vice-president Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 election down to 6-to-1 at the time.

Now, Biden is a -175 favorite to win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, with Trump coming back at +145. Harris will be Biden’s running mate after the former Delaware senator chose her to be his vice-presidential candidate, while Mike Pence will once again be Trump’s VP.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Odds Tracker

 

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

Read Here 

 

As we know, 2020 election odds have endured shakeup after shakeup in the months since. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Bernie Sanders were all once the favorite to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Now, they’ve all endorsed Democratic presidential favorite Joe Biden.

While the contestants in the Democratic field jockeyed for position, President Trump remained the favorite to win the 2020 election with odds soaring near -200 (aka 1-to-2) shortly after his impeachment trial ended.

That was then. The new normal, from everyday life to presidential betting odds, is quite different. As the world continues to grapple with a coronavirus pandemic, Biden and Trump are the favorites to win the 2020 election this November.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Chart
CandidateOct. 30Oct. 28Oct. 27Oct. 24Oct. 21Oct. 19Oct. 16Oct. 14Oct. 12Oct. 11Oct. 8Oct. 6Oct. 2Sept. 30Sept. 29Sept. 25Sept. 23Sept. 18Sept. 16Sept. 10Sept. 4Sept. 2August 31August 21August 17August 12August 4July 31July 19July 3June 27June 22June 17June 4June 3May 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 28March 18March 16March 14March 8Mar 4Feb 27Feb 13Feb 5Feb 4Jan 29Jan 21Jan 14Jan 7
Joe Biden-175-180-190-185-165-160-190-200-200-190-190-175-190-140-120-135-130-130-115-120-115-105-115-135-145-160-165-170-150-160-140-130-120-110+105+120+130+130+135+120+125+125+140+140+130-105-105+115+125+160+2000+1600+850+600+550+450+550+400
Donald Trump+145+150+145+135+125+125+155+170+170+160+160+145+160+120EVEN+105+110+110-105EVEN-105-115-105+115+125+135+140+145+135+140+120+115EVENEVEN-115-120-120-120-120-120-125-125-120-115-115-105EVEN-115-130-150-180-170-150-140-135-140-145-115
Hillary ClintonOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+10000+10000+10000+10000+15000+10000+10000+8000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000+2500+2200+2200+2000+4000+5000+5000+6000+6600+6600+5000+5000+6000+10000+6000+8000+6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000
Kamala Harris+10000+10000+10000+10000+7500+6600+6600+6600+5000+5000+6600+5000OTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB
Mike Pence+10000+10000+10000+10000+7500+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000+3300+3000+2000+10000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+6000+6600+6600+5500+5500+8000+8000+9500+5000+6000+6000+6000+5000+5000+5000+6000+6000+4000+3000+2800+20000+20000+12500+15000+12500+12500+12500+12500+8000+8000+8000
Michelle ObamaOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+15000OTB+10000OTB+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+8000+5000+5000+5000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Bernie SandersOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+2500+1800+3000+4000+3000+2500+1600+1200+275+375+425+350+250+500+500+700
Andrew CuomoOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+8000+10000+8000+6000+5000+4000+3000+3000+3300+3300+2200+1000+2200N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Nikki HaleyOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+25000OTB+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+12500+12500+12500+15000+20000+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000OTB+10000+10000+20000+50000+30000+20000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000
Kanye WestOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+6600OTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB

Odds as of October 30


Latest U.S. Election Betting News

At this point, much of the United States electorate are like kids in the back seat of the car during a long road trip, moaning “Are we there yet?” in unison. On paper, we’re four to five days shy of learning who will be the next president of the U.S. However, as with most of 2020, the expected outcome typically comes with an asterisk the size of Texas, which happens to be a toss-up battleground state after leaning right for decades.

The good news is that more than 82 million Americans have taken advantage of early voting opportunities, representing nearly 60 percent of the counted vote total of 2016 according to the U.S. Elections Project. On the odds front, Joe Biden’s chances to win the U.S. election remain steady as President Donald Trump faces an uphill climb to 270 Electoral College votes.

No News Is Good News?

In the week leading up to 2016’s election day, headlines targeted Hillary Clinton’s emails and, in many pundits’ opinion, that bad ink cost her the presidency. Four years later, this week leading up to November 3’s trip to the polls has been relatively uneventful. If you listen closely, some Americans actually found a moment to catch their breath after a stressful campaign season.

With a handful of days remaining, Joe Biden remains the heavy favorite at -175 at Bovada and -180 at BetOnline – the latter sportsbook’s odds down from -200 two days ago. Biden’s odds at both books carry an implied probability of better than 60 percent. President Trump’s odds are +145 at Bovada and +160 at BetOnline, or an implied probability of roughly 40 percent.

The seven most-referenced battleground/swing states are all leaning toward Biden in FiveThirtyEight’s recent polling:

  • Arizona – Biden leads by 3 points
  • Florida – Biden leads by 2 points
  • Georgia – Biden leads by 1.7 points
  • Michigan – Biden leads by 8.6 points
  • North Carolina – Biden leads by 2.1 points
  • Pennsylvania – Biden leads by 5 points
  • Wisconsin – Biden leads by 8.6 points

Why Betting Odds Matter with U.S. Elections

If United States voters learned one thing following the 2016 election, it’s that presidential polling should be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt.

The voluminous amount of polling data shared by the media all but guaranteed Hillary Clinton would win the presidency and she didn’t. Donald Trump flipped the script with the biggest political upset in history and if you were one of the select few who saw value on oddsboards in the days leading up to the November 2016 election, a significant profit could be made.

Trump’s odds to win the 2016 election were near 5-to-1 the day before the election. Wagering on political outcomes seems a lot more enjoyable, and financially wise, than arguing with strangers on social media.

What Do the Numbers Mean?

For those new to 2020 election odds, the numbers can be a little confusing. Odds Shark’s odds calculator is a great tool to help translate who will win the 2020 election into implied probabilities. For example, at -175, Joe Biden’s implied probability to win the 2020 election would be 63.64 percent and President Trump’s at +145 odds would be 40.82 percent. Trump had -180 odds, or 64.29 percent implied probability, to win the election during the last week of February.

These fluctuating market prices are set by both online oddsmakers and the betting public. It’s obvious that Trump’s early dismissive public comments about coronavirus caused bettors to start wagering on Biden. With money coming in on the former vice-president, political betting sites adjusted Trump’s odds. Cause and effect.

Over the past few years, bookmakers’ election odds prices have been referenced by industry experts and pollsters like FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver as an additional layer of data to help with their projection models.

How to Bet on the Presidential Election

If you believe President Trump, Joe Biden or a dark-horse candidate will win the presidency, a 2020 election prop bet is a great way to showcase your political expertise.

An example of a political prop bet is as simple as “Who will win the 2020 election: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?” Other examples are “Who will Biden select as his vice-presidential candidate?” and “Which party will win the 2020 election popular vote: Democratic or Republican?”

How to Read Election Prop Odds

After you decide which political prop to wager on, first-time bettors need to understand what the odds mean.

Here’s a specific example:

Who will win the 2020 presidential election?

CandidateOdds
Donald Trump-105
Joe Biden+120
Bernie Sanders+400

The -105 means that if you wagered $105 on Trump and he won the 2020 election, you’d win $100 and recoup your original $105 bet. With Joe Biden at +120, that means if you wager $100 on Biden and he wins the election, you win $120 and recoup your original $100 bet. Bernie Sanders at +400 is another way of writing 4-to-1, so a $100 winning bet would collect $400.

In short, the plus (+) symbol means that specific bet/option is considered an underdog, while the minus (-) symbol before a number indicates that option is a favorite to win the bet. As always, if you’d also like to review the implied probability of any odds, be sure to check out our odds calculator.

2020 Election Handicapping

Odds Shark has also compiled a comprehensive list of 2020 Presidential Election Betting Props for bettors if they want to look at more options than just “Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.”

While picking the winner of the 2020 United States election is the most popular prop bet to wager on, dozens of exotic props, specials and futures pop up on oddsboards in the months leading up to November 3. Some prop bet specials examples include:

  • Will Donald Trump complete his first term?
  • Will Democrats have a brokered convention?
  • Who will win the 2020 Electoral College vote?
  • Who will win the popular vote?
  • Which party will win the popular vote?
  • Which party will gain control of the House of Representatives?

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