2020 Presidential Odds: Analysis, Betting Information and Tips

As an alternative to interpreting infinite United States election polls and the opinions of dozens of media pundits, why not bet on the election yourself?

Odds Shark began tracking 2020 presidential betting odds when they first opened last summer and explained how to bet on politics during this election cycle and several before it.

Way back on July 11, 2019, President Donald Trump was the favorite to win, while Democratic Senator Kamala Harris enjoyed the second-best odds. Harris’ strong performance in the first Democratic debate knocked former vice-president Joe Biden’s odds to win the 2020 election down to 6-to-1 at the time.

Now, Biden is a -190 favorite to win the 2020 U.S. presidential election, with Trump coming back at +155. Harris will be Biden’s running mate after the former Delaware senator chose her to be his vice-presidential candidate, while Mike Pence will once again be Trump’s VP.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds

Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

As we know, 2020 election odds have endured shakeup after shakeup in the months since. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Bernie Sanders were all once the favorite to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Now, they’ve all endorsed Democratic presidential favorite Joe Biden.

While the contestants in the Democratic field jockeyed for position, President Trump remained the favorite to win the 2020 election with odds soaring near -200 (aka 1-to-2) shortly after his impeachment trial ended.

That was then. The new normal, from everyday life to presidential betting odds, is quite different. As the world continues to grapple with a coronavirus pandemic, Biden and Trump are the favorites to win the 2020 election this November.

Odds as of October 16

Latest U.S. Election Betting News

The second presidential debate was cancelled, town halls on competing networks were double-booked and – compared to the past few weeks – they led to a pretty uneventful political evening. At the end of the day, President Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election have come off their all-time lows, while former vice-president Joe Biden maintains a healthy odds lead over the incumbent. 

​Presidential Town Halls

NBC’s Savannah Guthrie peppered President Trump with questions on topics ranging from coronavirus to QAnon conspiracy theories to his Twitter habits before handing over the mic to undecided voters. It was a Trump-approved vamp-fest that appears to have helped his chances as his odds to win the 2020 election ticked up from +170 earlier this week to +155 at Bovada, his best implied probability to win over the past 10 days.

Over on ABC, George Stephanopoulos and Joe Biden engaged in an hour-long policy conversation sparked by audience questions. The right side of the aisle compared the vibe of the room to a vitriolic childhood television host...

Well @JoeBiden @ABCPolitics townhall feels like I am watching an episode of Mister Rodgers Neighborhood. https://t.co/bC8fIZPxHR

— Mercedes Schlapp (@mercedesschlapp) October 16, 2020

Biden’s odds, though off their highs, check in at -190 at Bovada.

The third presidential debate remains scheduled for October 22 in Nashville, Tennessee. We’ll wait with bated breath to see whether both campaigns agree to show up with election day right around the corner.

Why Betting Odds Matter with U.S. Elections

If United States voters learned one thing following the 2016 election, it’s that presidential polling should be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt.

The voluminous amount of polling data shared by the media all but guaranteed Hillary Clinton would win the presidency and she didn’t. Donald Trump flipped the script with the biggest political upset in history and if you were one of the select few who saw value on oddsboards in the days leading up to the November 2016 election, a significant profit could be made.

Trump’s odds to win the 2016 election were near 5-to-1 the day before the election. Wagering on political outcomes seems a lot more enjoyable, and financially wise, than arguing with strangers on social media.

What Do the Numbers Mean?

For those new to 2020 election odds, the numbers can be a little confusing. Odds Shark’s odds calculator is a great tool to help translate who will win the 2020 election into implied probabilities. For example, at -190, Joe Biden’s implied probability to win the 2020 election would be 65.52 percent and President Trump’s at +155 odds would be 39.22 percent. Trump had -180 odds, or 64.29 percent implied probability, to win the election during the last week of February.

These fluctuating market prices are set by both online oddsmakers and the betting public. It’s obvious that Trump’s early dismissive public comments about coronavirus caused bettors to start wagering on Biden. With money coming in on the former vice-president, political betting sites adjusted Trump’s odds. Cause and effect.

Over the past few years, bookmakers’ election odds prices have been referenced by industry experts and pollsters like FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver as an additional layer of data to help with their projection models.

How to Bet on the Presidential Election

If you believe President Trump, Joe Biden or a dark-horse candidate will win the presidency, a 2020 election prop bet is a great way to showcase your political expertise.

An example of a political prop bet is as simple as “Who will win the 2020 election: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?” Other examples are “Who will Biden select as his vice-presidential candidate?” and “Which party will win the 2020 election popular vote: Democratic or Republican?”

How to Read Election Prop Odds

After you decide which political prop to wager on, first-time bettors need to understand what the odds mean.

Here’s a specific example:

Who will win the 2020 presidential election?

The -105 means that if you wagered $105 on Trump and he won the 2020 election, you’d win $100 and recoup your original $105 bet. With Joe Biden at +120, that means if you wager $100 on Biden and he wins the election, you win $120 and recoup your original $100 bet. Bernie Sanders at +400 is another way of writing 4-to-1, so a $100 winning bet would collect $400.

In short, the plus (+) symbol means that specific bet/option is considered an underdog, while the minus (-) symbol before a number indicates that option is a favorite to win the bet. As always, if you’d also like to review the implied probability of any odds, be sure to check out our odds calculator.

2020 Election Handicapping

Odds Shark has also compiled a comprehensive list of 2020 Presidential Election Betting Props for bettors if they want to look at more options than just “Who will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.”

While picking the winner of the 2020 United States election is the most popular prop bet to wager on, dozens of exotic props, specials and futures pop up on oddsboards in the months leading up to November 3. Some prop bet specials examples include:

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