Maurizio Sarri and Chelsea will look to get nine points from their first three games with an away date at Newcastle on Sunday. The Blues, sitting there as -155 moneyline favorites, have actually struggled mightily in trips to St James’ Park down the years, but does that mean we should be lining up to bet the Magpies at +425?
Elsewhere on the oddsboard, the Blues are one-goal favorites in spread markets (+110) while the total is set at 2.5 with both sides at -110.
Let’s take a look inside this contest and find out what to wager on before the ball gets rolling in Newcastle on Sunday.
- Chelsea hasn’t won a league game at Newcastle since December 3, 2011.
- Eden Hazard has never scored a goal at St James’ Park.
- OVER 2.5 would have cashed in each of the last five meetings in all competitions.
View Newcastle vs Chelsea Matchup Page
St James’ Park Jinx
Didier Drogba. Salomon Kalou. Daniel Sturridge.
Those three ex-Chelsea players all found the scoresheet in a 3-0 Chelsea win in December of the 2011-12 season. That was the last time the London club won a league game at St James’ Park.
Sure, St James’ Park is never really an easy place to play, but Chelsea’s record there down the years has been really eye-opening.
Newcastle won this fixture 3-0 last season thanks to a brace of Ayoze Pérez and a single goal from Dwight Gayle. Now, it was the final game of the season and you could argue that most of the Chelsea side, including manager Antonio Conte, had mentally checked out, but it was a strong XI that they put out there.
In 2015-16, it was a 2-2 draw. Newcastle won 2-1 in 2014-15, 2-0 in 2013-14 and 3-2 in 2012-13. That’s a very impressive string of results for the Magpies.
I’ll be bucking this trend this weekend and I’ll take my chances on Chelsea at -155, as you can tell by the video above. It's chalky, I know, but I cashed on the Blues moneyline last week and I’ll be sticking with them with decent value against an inferior opponent.
Hazard a Wager on Eden Anytime?
Chelsea superstar Eden Hazard has never scored a goal at St James’ Park. I’ll let that nugget sink in for a minute.
The Belgian attacker has scored 69 goals in the Premier League (210 games) and has certainly scored plenty against the Magpies down the years but none coming in the northeast is crazy to me.
Hazard has scored six goals in the league against Newcastle, including two in the reverse fixture last year. He has yet to start for Sarri but has come off the bench in both games and has tallied a pair of assists in just 43 minutes for the Blues. Will he start this weekend? Only Maurizio Sarri knows but as he’s been eased back into the league after a deep Belgium run in the 2018 World Cup, surely this is a spot where he can return to the XI.
He’s being offered at +160 to score anytime at online shop Sportsbook for Sunday’s game and I think he’s a great candidate in anytime markets. But for me, I’ll be waiting until the starting lineups are announced one hour beforehand.
Pedro has banged two already for the Blues and he’s out there at +180 while Alvaro Morata, who scored a beauty against Arsenal, can be had at +130.
Overdoing It
If you’re thinking about betting totals, history indicates that this one could have goals in it. As mentioned earlier, both sides of the 2.5 are at -110 and OVER 1.0 in the first half is a decent-looking venture at -120.
The previous five meetings in all competitions would have cashed an OVER 2.5 wager with an average of four goals being scored per game over that stretch. The highest-scoring affair was a 5-1 Chelsea win at Stamford Bridge back in 2016, a game in which Pedro scored a brace and Willian also found his way to the scoresheet.
Chelsea has tallied three goals in each of its two victories so far and while Newcastle has only conceded a pair (both to Tottenham in Gameweek 1), the Magpies did allow Cardiff to attempt 12 shots last weekend, though only one landed on target.
If you paid any attention to Napoli and Sarri in the past few seasons, you know his tactical approach to the game is all about possession and a relentless attack with a trident up top. Newcastle could be in store for a long day but Rafael Benitez is no slouch on the touchline and should have a plan in place. It will just be a matter of whether or not the inferior personnel at his disposal is up to the challenge against an expensive, world-class Chelsea side.
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