Looking at the latest Premier League odds is a lot like how English Premier League managers are currently looking over their shoulders. There’s definitely something to watch out for, but you’re not quite sure what it is.
The latest odds on which manager will leave his Premier League post first is one of the best sports betting markets to wager on, purely because it’s never long before you get paid and it’s a lot like futures markets.
The Premier League managerial “Sack Race” might be the best value sports betting opportunity in the Premier League, but who is the outright favorite to go first and is that who you should put your hard-earned money on? Let’s take a look at the latest prices.
If you’ve never bet on soccer before or are looking for a refresher before throwing a bicycle kick on some bets, make sure to check out our How To Bet on Soccer guide to get you up to speed.
Next Premier League Manager to Be Replaced
|Ole Gunnar Solskjaer||+2500|
|Nuno Espirito Santo||+4000|
|No Manager To Leave||+25000|
Odds as of September 18 at Bovada
The Short Men
Plenty of the candidates to leave have short odds and what seems like an even shorter period of time in which to get results.
It’s impossible to start anywhere other than with David Moyes (+200), who for many years has had some of the shortest odds to leave his post first at the start of a Premier League season. Moyes, the former Manchester United and Everton manager who also took Sunderland down, is under immense pressure in East London.
Having players such as Felipe Anderson and Manuel Lanzini at his disposal, the stoic Scot has stuck to a tactic of bombing balls into the box toward a largely ineffective Sebastian Haller. While Moyes could easily go first, backing him is a mug’s game at those odds.
The same could be said for Roy Hodgson (+700) and Jose Mourinho (+800), if only due to Crystal Palace’s opening day win against Southampton and the rumors that Gareth Bale is close to re-signing for the North London-based Lilywhites.
While Scott Parker did a terrific job getting Fulham into the Premier League, he’d be our pick from the favorites, purely because a bad early start could lead the famously trigger-happy West London club’s owners to put in a manager with more experience if the going gets tough. They shouldn’t for their long-term success, but since when did that stop people panicking over parachute payments?
The Middle Men
Of the chasing pack, several stand out but not necessarily for the right reasons. Steve Bruce could easily be replaced if the Newcastle United ownership changes, something that looks increasingly likely to happen, and odds of +1600 aren’t awful either way. Sheffield United’s Chris Wilder seems overpriced at +2000 given the Blades are likely to have a much tougher second season back in the Premier League.
Elsewhere, Frank Lampard is too short at +2000 given Chelsea’s strong start, although with a dip, he could be a surprise sacking later in the season. Of the rest of the middle ranks, Brendan Rodgers has lost a Premier League position early doors before, having left Liverpool in October 2015 after a run of only four wins in his first 11 games. Given Leicester’s fall from the Champions League positions last season after lockdown, the +2500 on offer that it happens again should be looked at, even if he’s the right man long term for Leicester City. Club owners don’t always agree if results start dipping.
It’s not usually a good thing being an outsider in life, but in the Sack Race market, it really is.
No one believes Liverpool will sack Jurgen Klopp, so the odds of +6600 are fair. But someone is bound to go, and it might be a long shot. If it is, then we would argue that Pep Guardiola (+4000) is near the end of what might be called his typical period for managing a team. He was at the Barcelona helm for four seasons, before managing Bayern Munich for three. He’s been at the Etihad four years now and if there’s any kind of story around City following their failure to bring in Messi, he could choose to walk away.
Remember, it’s who leaves first, and they don’t have to do so having been sacked. It’s not about finding a new manager, it’s about finding the value in knowing who’s about to go.