Portugal (6-2-1, 4-4-1 ATS) will aim to secure their spot in the Round of 16 of Euro 2020 when they face a German team (7-0-2, 5-3-1 ATS) still looking for their first goal and win of the tournament. They play in Munich in a Saturday afternoon blockbuster encounter from the group of death.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Portugal’s odds have moved slightly since Sportsbook. They began at +250 but have now shortened slightly to +233. The draw has also had minor movement. After Sportsbook at +225, the draw’s price is now +234, nearly identical to the odds for a Portugal win. After a fairly lackadaisical Sportsbook match, Germany’s odds have lengthened a bit. They started at +110 to register their Sportsbook win of the tournament but are now +137.

Portugal News & Notes

For a long period in their Sportsbook match, Portugal didn’t look like they had enough firepower in the final third to break down a stoic Hungary defense. Eventually, a deflected goal in the 84th minute from Raphael Guerreiro broke the home team down as Hungary just couldn’t stay abreast of the fitness and speed of Portugal. Cristiano Ronaldo went on to score a brace thereafter, including a typically effective penalty, to become the tournament’s highest goalscorer.

That was a crucial win for Portugal because it ensured that they don’t necessarily have to beat France and Germany to make a clean break from the group of death. Their impressive recovery and persistence are also laudable characteristics, and will be a requisite if Portugal are to have a chance to defend their title.

“We started with a win, but it’s only three points,” Portugal coach Fernando Santos said. “We have two very important games to follow. This is the Euro and we have to be consistent.”

From a personnel standpoint, not much will change for Portugal, at least in the way they set up. Nuno Mendes is Portugal’s only injury concern as he seeks to recover quickly from a thigh injury. That should result in a similar primary attack for Portugal, consisting of Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Diogo Jota and Bernardo Silva.

Their approach will be interesting against a team that prefers the high press. There is plenty of offensive power in that final third for Portugal to just stay compact in defense and then break effectively and catch Germany on the counter-attack. It certainly wouldn’t be an implausible strategy for Santos.

Germany News & Notes

Germany endured a disappointing Sportsbook defeat to France. Firstly, it’s important to note that France is a high-quality team and incredibly hard to break defensively. Still, Germany had just one shot on target, their lowest tally since the 2008 edition of the European Championship.

That’s so unlike Germany. Maybe there is a deeper issue around their squad lacking the depth to be able to sustain their style of soccer? We’ll have to wait for their match against Hungary to find out because they won’t annihilate this Portugal team.

Morale and confidence will be imperative factors, especially with a spot in the Round of 16 still not confirmed for the Sportsbooks of the 2014 World Cup.

“The ambition and the determination of the team remain exemplary,” coach Joachim Low said. “That’s why we know we can turn things around. If we can be more vigorous up front, we will be able to beat Portugal.”

Germany and Low don’t have too many injury worries to concern themselves with, but the composition of the squad will be a headache. Germany might want a bit more zest in the final third, and could bring in Timo Werner for some more speed, either in a central role or along the flanks, like he occasionally does with Chelsea. Leroy Sane is also an option to lead the attack in the final third and have Germany’s playmakers feed deliveries into that area.

Betting Pick 1: Draw +234

Portugal have a rich history of success at this tournament. They are defending champions and have achieved plenty in the preceding editions as well. Germany won the greatest soccer title in 2014, they are a proud team and have enough depth in this squad to ensure they won’t be as easily beaten here. When two such teams face each other, and are as inseparable as this, the draw is always the most prudent strategy.

Betting Pick 2: UNDER 2.5 goals (-138)

Prepare yourself for almost any outcome when Germany plays. One thing is for sure, they won’t be beaten by too many goals. That’s the only foreseeable event, with any level of certainty. If you break down betting into logical decisions that you have no control over should they not pan out, such as this, you can achieve a zen-like state of mind to enjoy matches like this one. The likelihood, on paper, is for the UNDER.