Manchester United Favored to Win Europa League

The Europa League moves on to the quarterfinals after an entertaining Round of 16 that saw several high-profile teams exit the competition earlier than expected. Are there more upsets in store in the quarters? We take a look at some of the outright markets for the Europa League below.

At Bovada, Manchester United is the +150 betting favorite in 2020-21 UEFA Europa League odds. Next on the oddsboard to win the competition are Arsenal (+275), Villareal (+500), Ajax (+700) and Roma (+1000).

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Odds as of April 1 at Bovada

Who are the Favorites to Win the Europa League?

The most likely result is Manchester United (+150) for several reasons. One is momentum. It needed just two goals to beat AC Milan across two legs in the Round of 16. Manchester United has also lost just one game in its last 10 matches across competitions. The second reason is confidence. AC Milan is one of the most explosive offensive teams in Europe. To keep that aggressive core down to just one goal in 180 minutes will undeniably improve morale in a defensive lineup that can often be lackadaisical at the back.

Thirdly, this is Manchester United’s only chance of silverware this year. That one loss was in its previous game, against Leicester City in the FA Cup quarters. Even though Manchester United is second in the EPL table, making up 14 points to equal rivals and league leaders Manchester City seems highly implausible. Manchester United’s implied probability to win the Europa League is 40 percent currently. I’d be backing the math and probability of this market along with the skill of England’s second-best team this year to win the Europa League.

Will Arsenal Maintain Defensive Efficiency?

Arsenal (+275) has not kept a clean sheet in its last 10 games. That has been, and will continue to be, a massive worry for manager Mikel Arteta. However, Arsenal has stuck to its preferred tactic of playing from the back and breaking down opponents in the middle third with incisive and sharp passes. It has worked, particularly in the Europa League.

Arsenal is leading the Europa League in efficiency of passing. It has completed 5,126 passes out of 5,827, at a conversion rate of 88 percent. Its average ball possession has been 58 percent in this tournament.

Arsenal beat Olympiakos with a combined score of 3-2 in the Round of 16. In the preceding stage, Arsenal beat Benfica with a combined score of 4-3. Arsenal has conceded plenty in the Europa League but importantly, it has also scored 27 goals, highest in the competition so far. Arsenal’s implied probability to win the Europa League is 26.67 percent.

Left-field picks for the Europa League

Ajax (+700) and Roma (+1000), two of the best teams in their respective local leagues, will face each other in the quarters. The winner of that tie will definitely challenge for a spot in the final.

Apart from the English clubs, Villareal (+500) is the most favored team to win the competition. It will face Dinamo Zagreb, a steady Croatian team, that has won seven of 10 matches in this tournament. Villareal is however one of only two teams that hasn’t lost a match in this year’s Europa League. The other is Manchester United but it has played six fewer games than Villareal. Villareal has scored 22 goals at an average of 2.2 per game and conceded just 0.6 goals per game, equating to a stunning goal difference of 16. Villareal’s implied probability to win is 16.67 percent.

Quarterfinals schedule of the Europa League

The most anticipated tie of this stage is between Dutch team Ajax and Serie A powerhouse Roma. Ajax begins as a slight favorite to qualify. Roma, however, will have the advantage of playing the second leg at home, aware of the requirements to qualify.

Arsenal will start at the Emirates Stadium against Slavia Prague as a heavy favorite. Among all first legs of this quarterfinal stage, Arsenal has the highest probability of winning.

Villareal, the third-most favored team to win the Europa League, will be on the road against Dinamo Zagreb. Villareal’s implied probability of qualifying is over 70 percent.

Manchester United rounds out the list with an away game against Granada. Over two legs, this is expected to be the most one-sided tie of the quarters, with Manchester United’s implied probability to win at over 85 percent.

All quarterfinal matches will kick off at the same time on April 8.

Which Nation will the Winner of the Europa League Come From?

An important point to note for this market: Manchester United and Arsenal cannot meet before the final of the competition. That increases the probability of a winner from England significantly. If Arsenal meets Manchester United in the final, a bet on England at odds of -200 pays out even before the end of the tournament.

Even though odds of -200 aren’t exactly compelling, it’s far more likely than any other result. Based on your preferred sportsbook, you might also have the option to book a profit ahead of the semifinals using the cash-out option.

For context on the morale in the Arsenal camp: “We are still far from the final but the idea is to go step by step, game by game and we have a difficult match against Slavia,” Arsenal midfielder Willian said ahead of the quarters. “They are a compact team which also has quality. We believe we can reach the final, yes.”

A winner from Spain (+400) will likely be Villareal, while an Italian winner (+1000) is unlikely considering there is only Roma left in the pool.

Three out of the eight teams, comprising 37.5 percent of the remaining pool, are from countries other than England, Spain and Italy. A winner from either of Dinamo Zagreb (Croatia), Ajax (Netherlands) and Slavia Prague (Czech Republic) could fetch you a profit of four times your investment.

Odds as of April 1 at Bovada

Which EPL Team Will Progress Further in the Europa League?

Manchester United (-190) seems to have hit a nice little patch of form this year. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has made a few shrewd additions to the squad, including the experience and composure of Edinson Cavani from PSG. Europa League statistics between Arsenal (10 matches played) and Manchester United (four matches played) doesn’t make for an apples-to-apples comparison because there is a difference of six games between them.

Instead, let’s look at their performances back in the EPL. Both Arsenal and Manchester United have conceded exactly 32 goals in 29 games. Manchester United, however, has scored 14 more goals in the same period, an indicator of its quality and consistency in the final third, with players like Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Cavani. There is also a difference of six clubs between Manchester United (second) and Arsenal (ninth) in the EPL standings.

Arsenal will also face a tricky opponent in Slavia Prague in the quarters, while Manchester United has an easier fixture, on paper, against Spanish team Granada. Too many factors point to Manchester United for this market.

Odds as of April 1 at Bovada

We’ll be back in a couple of weeks to update this page after the conclusion of the quarterfinals stage of the Europa League.