Alex Pereira is the underdog vs Jan Blachowicz at UFC 291

Blachowicz vs Pereira Odds & Picks: Poatan Moves To Light Heavyweight

Former UFC middleweight champ Alex Pereira makes his much-anticipated leap to 205 pounds, as he takes on ex-light heavyweight title-holder Jan Blachowicz.

This potential title eliminator fight happens July 29 at UFC 291.

The Pereira-Blachowicz co-main bout is scheduled for three rounds and will be the perfect warm-up to a guaranteed violent affair between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje in the main event.

Blachowicz, with his experience and wrestling background, is a slight -125 favorite over Pereira.

Jan Blachowicz vs Alex pereira Betting Odds

Blachowicz vs Pereira Odds
FighterOdds
Jan Blachowicz-125
Alex Pereira+100

Odds as of July 24

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Blachowicz at -125 (55.56% implied chance) pays out $180. The same $100 on Pereira's even odds (50% implied chance) pays out $200.

UFC 291 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC 291 Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight (BMF Title) – Dustin Poirier (-150) vs Justin Gaethje (+125)
  • Light Heavyweight – Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs Alex Pereira (+100)
  • Welterweight – Stephen Thompson (-170) vs Michel Pereira (+140)
  • Lightweight – Tony Ferguson (+275) vs Bobby Green (-350)
  • Welterweight – Michael Chiesa (+125) vs Kevin Holland (-150)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Trevin Giles (+260) vs Gabriel Bonfim (-315)
  • Heavyweight – Derrick Lewis (+150) Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-175)
  • Middleweight – Roman Kopylov (-250) vs Claudio Ribeiro (+200)
  • Welterweight – Jake Matthews (-334) vs Darrius Flowers (+250)
  • Flyweight – CJ Vergara (-170) vs Vinicius Salvador (+140)
  • Welterweight – Matthew Semelsberger (-188) vs Uros Medic (+162)
  • Women's Flyweight – Miranda Maverick (-350) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+275)

Odds as of July 24

How To Watch UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2
  • Date/Time: July 29, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
  • Arena: Delta Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Blachowicz vs Pereira Betting Preview: Do we Bet on Alex By KO?

Countless fighters have talked about Pereira's "death touch." He's so powerful that if he touches you, you go out. Is this fight that simple?

The Blachowicz vs Pereira odds favor the Pole, so let's find out why.

How Blachowicz Wins

At 40 years old, Blachowicz's window is closing. The Pole is a thick, rugged fighter who competes in all phases of MMA, but a matchup vs Pereira is a scary proposition. That said, there's a route to Jan winning.

"Poatan" won't want to wrestle, so Blachowicz will always have the takedown in his back pocket, but this bout will be decided on the feet.

Blachowicz has a very heavy back leg, and he torqued that body kick to decimate Dominick Reyes back at UFC 253. That bout opened my eyes to Jan's game. He's a simple but effective striker, and I think his heavy strikes and kicks to the body (underneath Pereira's awkward high guard) will decide this three-round fight.

How Pereira Wins

Pereira wins by using his snappy kickboxing skillset, and that begins with a heavy array of leg kicks. Jan is big, but Poatan is longer, leaner and faster. 

Blachowicz, for all he does well, tends to get a little static in the Octagon. That strategy works when you can outmuscle your opponent, and brother there's no outmuscling this man made of stone. 

Watch for Alex to bounce around Blachowicz and batter him with strikes. As the Pole drifts closer to the fence, that's when Poatan will unload with force.

Blachowicz vs Pereira Betting Pick

Blachowicz might be able to wrestle Pereira to the ground and pin him there for 15 minutes. Maybe that happens. But every round begins on the feet, and that's why I'm taking the Brazilian.

I think Pereira will open this bout slowly, as he typically does, but explode for big moments. Amid those wild strikes and kicks, I'm counting on Blachowicz to hit the canvas.

At EVEN odds, Pereira is the play.

Pick: Pereira to win (+100); Value Play on Pereira by KO/TKO (TBD)

Back to Top