Dustin Poirier (left) is favored in the Poirier vs Gaethje betting odds

Poirier vs Gaethje Odds & Pick: BMF Title On The Line at UFC 291

The BMF (Baddest Motherf---er) title is back up for grabs, and this time two UFC lightweight veterans will fight for the honors.

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje highlight UFC 291 on July 29, with their five-round war set to rock the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

In this rematch — Poirier defeated Gaethje by third-round TKO in 2018 — we'll see "The Diamond" as the -150 favorite.

Want to bet on other fights on the UFC 291 main card? Check out our betting previews and picks:

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje Odds

Poirier vs Gaethje Odds
Dustin Poirier-150
Justin Gaethje+125

Odds as of July 27

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Poirier at -150 (60% implied chance) pays out $166.67. The same $100 on Gaethje's +125 odds (44.44% implied chance) pays out $225.

UFC 291 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC 291 Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight (BMF Title) – Dustin Poirier (-150) vs Justin Gaethje (+125)
  • Light Heavyweight – Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs Alex Pereira (+100)
  • Welterweight – Stephen Thompson (-160) vs Michel Pereira (+130)
  • Lightweight – Tony Ferguson (+300) vs Bobby Green (-400)
  • Welterweight – Michael Chiesa (+125) vs Kevin Holland (-150)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Trevin Giles (+250) vs Gabriel Bonfim (-334)
  • Heavyweight – Derrick Lewis (+180) Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-220)
  • Middleweight – Roman Kopylov (-210) vs Claudio Ribeiro (+175)
  • Welterweight – Jake Matthews (-275) vs Darrius Flowers (+225)
  • Flyweight – CJ Vergara (-150) vs Vinicius Salvador (+125)
  • Welterweight – Matthew Semelsberger (-210) vs Uros Medic (+175)
  • Women's Flyweight – Miranda Maverick (-334) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+250)

Odds as of July 27

How To Watch UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2
  • Date/Time: July 29, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
  • Arena: Delta Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Poirier vs Gaethje Betting Preview

The Poirier vs Gaethje odds are very tight. Let's see how we can take advantage. 

How Poirier Wins

In a five-round scenario, Poirier must neutralize the early storm from Gaethje. And he'll have to do it quickly. In the pair's first fight in 2018, "The Highlight" whizzed out of his corner and smashed Poirier with inside leg kicks. As a boxer, this compromised Dustin's base, but he bounced back.

As the fight dragged on, the Lousiana native turned to his boxing, smashing Gaethje in the gut when he shelled up his head. That was good for business.

In the rematch, Poirier must keep this fight away from the clinch. He wins by checking those leg kicks and maintaining good distance, where his punches and kicks become most effective.

How Gaethje Wins

Drop that head and wing it! Every Gaethje fight is the same — he uses his low kicks, wiggles inside, moves his head and slugs uppercuts. 

The 34-year-old certainly had his moments vs Poirier at UFC on Fox 29. When things got ugly, Gaethje prospered. Poirier didn't seem to handle his own orbital injuries as well as Gaethje did, and when Justin stumbled in close and socked Dustin with a right hook, his window of opportunity opened.

Gaethje wins this fight by closing the distance and pressing this fight to the fence. He had success in that scenario in 2018, and Poirier's proven to be vulnerable with his back to the cage. At UFC 280, Michael Chandler cut Poirier off and unloaded on him. Gaethje must do the same to stand a chance at UFC 291.

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje Pick

I'm all over this line if Dustin stays at around -150 come July 29. He's always been the better fighter, and right now he's fighting at the top of his game. Gaethje, while also talented, relies too heavily on his goonish guile.

The Diamond is too sharp for any of Gaethje's shenanigans. I'll take Dustin to win straight up, with a value bet on him inside the distance.

Pick: Poirier to win (-150); Value Pick Poirier inside the distance (+135)