Flyweight contender Manel Kape fights UFC rookie Felipe dos Santos this Saturday at UFC 293.
Kape, who was slated to fight Kai Kara-France before an injury, is now a -400 favorite over the Brazilian dos Santos.
Manel Kape vs Felipe dos santos Betting Odds
|Felipe dos Santos||+300|
Odds as of September 8
Per our odds calculator, Kape's -400 status awards him an 80% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $125. At +300, dos Santos owns a 25% chance and a $100 bet cashes $400.
Kape vs dos Santos Betting Preview
The odds reflect exactly what this fight is: a top contender fighting a UFC newbie. dos Santos will be in trouble.
How To Bet dos Santos
Not much is known about dos Santos. The 22-year-old was originally scheduled to fight on Dana White's Contender Series before that fight got nixed. Now he'll be thrust into a massive spotlight on a UFC pay-per-view.
"Lipe Detona" trains with Chute Boxe in Brazil, home of former UFC lightweight champ Charles Oliveira, so it's not unreasonable to draw similarities. I imagine he's got some chaotic spirit to him, but Kape is a warrior in his own right.
Honestly, I just don't know enough about dos Santos. I've watched a bit of tape — the kid is lean, quick, and strong off his back — but I'm steering clear.
How To Bet Kape
"Starboy" is compact, powerful, and capable of a dynamic knockout while also possessing the cardio to secure a decision win.
Against a UFC newcomer, I'll be betting Kape to win inside the distance. As I said, dos Santos is creative and comfortable in the cage, but he's way too lean to withstand even 15 minutes of Kape's punishment.
Kape vs dos Santos Betting Pick
I like Kape to win inside the distance, a bet that leaves open the possibility of a scramble submission. If that's not enough value, I'd look to parlay it with the UNDER 2.5 rounds (-175).