Tom Aspinall (left) is favored over Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295

Aspinall vs Pavlovich Odds & Picks: A New Title Fight For UFC 295

Another one bites the dust.

It's been a bad time for UFC main events lately. First, Charles Oliveira dropped out of UFC 294, resulting in Islam Makhachev fighting Alex Volkanovski. Now Jon Jones is out of his UFC 295 title fight vs Stipe Miocic. Ugh.

So in come the interim title heroes — Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich — to duke it out for Jones' vacant heavyweight belt in the co-main event on Nov. 11 at Madison Square Garden.

We've got tight odds in this new fight, with Aspinall a narrow -138 favorite over Pavlovich (+110).

Tom Aspinall vs Sergei Pavlovich Betting Odds

UFC 295: Aspinall vs Pavlovich Odds
Tom Aspinall-138
Sergei Pavlovich+110

Odds as of Nov. 6

Our odds calculator suggests Aspinall's -138 odds imply a 57.98% chance of winning, and a $100 bet on him pays out $172.46. Pavlovich's +110 underdog odds imply a 47.62% win probability, and a $100 bet on him pays out $210. 

How To Watch UFC 295: Prochazka vs Pereira

  • Date/Time: November 11, 6 p.m ET
  • Location: New York City, New York
  • Arena: Madison Square Garden
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Aspinall vs Pavlovich Betting Preview: Who Wins This New Main Event?

Here are the bets I'm recommending ahead of the Aspinall vs Pavlovich matchup at UFC 295 in New York City.

How To Bet Aspinall vs Pavlovich

I won't insult you with a long, expository word salad on this fight — bet this brawl to end in Round 1. Why? All seven of Pavlovich's UFC fights (6 KO wins, 1 KO loss) have ended within the first five minutes. That's how the Russian fights and it's the only way he'll find success.

Aspinall is also a mean first-round finisher. Six of his seven UFC fights have stopped in Round 1, with the only exception (Andrei Arlovski) squeaking into the second round before the Englishman secured a submission.

Pavlovich has the edge in power, no doubt, but Aspinall's movement is the key. Sergei will blitz on offense, and from there the fight will be decided. If Aspinall can defend correctly and get this fight to the mat, we're looking at a mighty fine first-round submission possibility. 

Aspinall vs Pavlovich Betting Pick

Round 1. Round 1. Round 1. My first bet is on this bout to end within five minutes. We shall see how chalked that is come fight week. 

After that, I'm going with Aspinall to win in Round 1, and I'll take a value pick on him to win by submission.

Pick: Aspinall to win in round 1 (TBD); Fight ends in round 1 (TBD); aspinall by submission (TBD)

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