Dricus Du Plessis in an underdog in his fight vs Israel Adesanya

Adesanya vs Du Plessis Odds & Picks: A Showdown Of African Stars

Dricus Du Plessis is for real. There's no denying that now.

After the South African smashed Robert Whittaker via second-round TKO at UFC 290, middleweight champion Israel Adesanya entered the cage to confront his next title challenger.

It is now abundantly clear an Adesanya vs. Du Plessis middleweight title bout will be a lot of fun. These two men detest one another, and their animosity dates back quite some time (more on that later).

The odds tell a different story, however. Adesanya is a hefty -330 favorite over Du Plessis (+270) for a UFC title bout at a future date.

Israel Adesanya vs Dricus Du Plessis Betting Odds

Adesanya vs Du plessis Odds
Israel Adesanya-330
Dricus Du Plessis+270

Odds as of July 10

Per our odds calculator, Adesanya's -330 odds equate to a win probability of 76.74%, and a $100 bet on him pays $130.30. Du Plessis gets a 27.03% chance and a $100 bet yields $370. 

Why Do Adesanya and Du Plessis Have Beef?

The gripe began in 2020 after Du Plessis, a South African, claimed he wanted to become the first champ who is "African born, African raised."

The up-and-coming fighter explained that while some fighters represent Africa — both Kamaru Usman and Adesanya fight under the Nigerian flag — they don't reside, wake up and train in Africa. Du Plessis' point was that Usman and Adesanya's belts, as far as he knew, went to New Zealand (Adesanya) and America (Usman).

This instantly bothered Adesanya, who called out Du Plessis after he beat Alex Pereira at UFC 287. Given the racial and colonial undertones of the situation, especially in a South African context, the Adesanya-Du Plesis beef became very divisive.

Adesanya vs Du Plessis Betting Preview: Who wins this Middleweight title fight?

The Adesanya vs Du Plessis odds tell us Izzy should crank the burly South African. But is it that simple?

How Adesanya Wins

In my mind, I've likened Du Plessis' physical style to two of Adesanya's previous opponents: Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa. These guys were both human terminators with a brutish style and, in Romero's case, solid wrestling.

The Yoel fight was comedically dull, but Adesanya will be best against DDP if he slows things to a crawl. By turning this bout into a rhythmic kickboxing match, "The Last Stylebender" can read Du Plessis, find those chinks in the armor and lash out with his patented snapping strikes.

Du Plessis' cardio looked much better vs Whittaker, and the South African will hold a strong wrestling advantage, but he's never gone five full rounds, and he's sure as hell never fought a killer like Adesanya.

How Du Plessis Wins

Dricus lands thudding jabs and straights — he's like a battering ram with those punches. Often he'll get his combos started with a jab and then blitz as his opponent covers up, shooting his foes back toward the cage as he continues the barrage.

Punches in bunches will help him defeat Izzy, but that initial entry will be massive. Think back to the Alex Pereira knockout at UFC 281, where "Poatan" started his KO onslaught with a jab and short uppercut.

DDP can outwrestle Adesanya, too, but he won't find much space unless he enters range and does damage with his strikes.

Israel Adesanya vs Dricus Du Plessis Betting Pick

In my mind, I see this vision of Adesanya clubbing Dricus with a head kick and hopping on him for a finish. DDP has cement hands, so a KO the other way is always on the table, but Adesanya is just more creative.

The middleweight champ is slicker on offense, and he fights smart of defense, too. There are levels to the game, and Adesanya is a UFC legend for a reason.

Pick: Adesanya (-330) inside the distance (TBD); UNDER 3.5 Rounds (TBD)