Joaquin Buckley is favored vs Andre Fialho on May 20

Fialho vs Buckley Odds & Pick: Damage, Damage, Damage

Welterweights Andre Fialho and Joaquin Buckley will punch out their problems on May 20, ahead of a UFC Fight Night main event between Angela Hill and Mackenzie Dern.

The Fialho-Buckley three-round fight will also warm up the crowd for a co-main between Edmen Shahbazyan and Anthony Hernandez.

The event takes place at Apex in Las Vegas, where prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 8 p.m.

Buckley is currently a -225 favorite over Fialho.

UFC Fight Night: Fialho vs Buckley Betting Odds

Fialho vs Buckley Odds
Andre Fialho+187
Joaquin Buckley-225

Odds as of May 19

According to our odds calculator, Buckley's -225 status gives him an implied win probability of 69.23% and a $100 bet on him pays $144.44. Fialho's +187 status implied a 34.84 win percentage, with a $100 bet paying out $287.

How To Watch UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill

Here's how you can watch all the action.

  • Date/Time: May 20, 4 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, Cable Provider

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Full Card & Betting Odds

Here's Saturday's lineup at the Apex.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Fight Card Odds
  • Main Card
  • Women's Strawweight Main Event – Mackenzie Dern (-175) vs Angela Hill (+150)
  • Middleweight – Edmen Shahbazyan (+187) vs Anthony Hernandez (-225)
  • Women's Catchweight (120 lbs) – Lupita Godinez (-160) vs Emily Ducote (+130)
  • Welterweight – Andre Fialho (+187) vs Joaquin Buckley (-225)
  • Lightweight – Michael Johnson (+130) vs Diego Ferreira (-160)
  • Prelims
  • Lightweight – Maheshate (+140) vs Viacheslav Borshchev (-170)
  • Women's Strawweight – Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-138) vs Vanessa Demopoulos (+110)
  • Welterweight – Orion Cosce (-125) vs Gilbert Urbina (+100)
  • Heavyweight – Ilir Latifi (+162) vs Rodrigo Nascimento (-188)
  • Lightweight – Chase Hooper (+110) vs Nick Fiore (-138)
  • Women's flyweight – Victoria Leonardo (+600) vs Natalia Silva (-1000)
  • Welterweight – Takashi Soto (+100) vs Themba Gorimbo (-125)

Odds as of May 19

Fialho vs Buckley Tale Of The Tape

FighterAndre FialhoJoaquin Buckley
Record16-6 (1-2 as underdog)15-6 (3-2 as favorite)
Avg. Fight Time8:089:29
Sig. Strikes Per Minute3.173.87
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute6.223.53
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes0.001.23
Takedown Accuracy0%30%
Takedown Defense71%66%

Fialho vs Buckley: Who Will Win?

These are some big fellas ready to throw down.

How Fialho Wins

The Portuguese welterweight is tons of fun to watch. He's jacked, he's quick and his fights usually end early, for better or for worse. Fialho is the exact type of martial artist that makes this sport fun, and he'll come out flying Saturday.

Fialho is tough, but he takes way too much damage. His significant strike splits are quite terrible, with him landing just 3.17 shots per minute and absorbing 6.22 strikes. I hope his family isn't watching.

If the 29-year-old wants to beat a tank like Buckley, he'll need to move his feet more, because standing and trading with Buckley often ends in a one-way ticket to the shadow realm.

How Buckley Wins

Buckley will be immortalized for the greatest knockout in UFC history, but he hasn't quite found his footing since that fateful KO in 2020, often alternating wins and losses. However, the Missouri native has a big opportunity Saturday.

As I said before, it's amazing how much damage Fialho is willing to take. Buckley will be salivating when he gets into the Octagon, ready to unleash his power. My gut tells me there will be a feeling-out process, but when the exchanges happen, Buckley will need to watch for counter-punches. If he's smart enough to defend after big shots, he can wear Fialho down as this fight goes on.

Fialho vs Buckley Pick

I have a strange feeling this fight goes OVER 1.5 rounds but still ends inside the distance. Sometimes, when two hulks share the cage, they take their time before throwing down. 

That said, I'm still riding Buckley to win inside the distance. Fialho's fight style just isn't sustainable. 

Pick: Buckley to win inside the distance (+105); OVER 1.5 rounds (-140)

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