Gunnar Nelson is favored over Bryan Barberena at UFC 286.

Nelson vs Barberena Odds & Picks: A Mismatch In Gunni’s Favor

Welterweights Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1, 9-5 UFC) and Bryan Barberena (18-9, 9-7 UFC) will square off on the main card at UFC 286. Barberena slid in as a late replacement for Daniel Rodriguez.

Since this fight is a stylistic mismatch, “Gunni” is a chunky -400 favorite. “Bam Bam” is the +300 underdog.

UFC 286: Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena Betting Odds

Nelson vs Barberena Odds
Gunnar Nelson-400
Bryan Barberena+300

Odds as of March 17

Our odds calculator suggests Nelson’s -350 odds translate to an implied win probability of 80 percent, and a $10 bet on him pays out $12.50. Barberena’s +300 odds equate to a 25 percent chance of victory with a $10 bet paying out $40. 

For more information on how these numbers work, including the Nelson vs Barberena odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

UFC 286: Nelson vs Barberena Preview

Let’s rake in some cash together.

What Nelson Does Well

Nelson isn’t much for standup fighting, but he sure is one hell of a grappler. In fact, Nelson is one of the best to ever do it. The Icelander’s six submission wins have him tied for the most in UFC welterweight history, which gives you an indication why this fight is such a mismatch.

Yes, Nelson is a bit older and slower, but he’s still incredibly capable. He won’t waste much time striking, so watch for him to immediately engage Barberena in a grappling exchange. From there, it won’t take long for Gunni to attempt (and likely secure) a submission.

What Barberena Does (Or Doesn’t Do) Well

Barberena is a fun time as a brawler, but his ground game is abysmal. The 33-year-old got dominated by Rafael dos Anjos in his last fight, eventually losing by second-round submission. He might be able to tag Nelson at the start of each round, but the horn should sound with him on his back or butt.

Nelson has this one locked up.

Nelson vs Barberena Pick

To stop or not to stop? That is the question. I imagine Nelson will win this fight handily, but, depending on the value, I’d be gunning for either submission or decision.

I'm predicting a stoppage, and my official pick is Nelson by submission and the fight to finish UNDER 2.5 rounds. 

Pick: Nelson by submission (EVEN); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-155)

Check out our other UFC 286 previews, including picks on Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards, Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev, Jennifer Maia vs Casey O’Neill and Roman Dolidze vs Marvin Vettori

UFC 286: Full Card & Betting Odds

UFC 286 Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Welterweight Title Fight – Kamaru Usman (-250) vs Leon Edwards (+200)
  • Lightweight  – Justin Gaethje (+187) vs Rafael Fiziev (-225)
  • Welterweight – Gunnar Nelson (-400) vs Bryan Barberena (+300)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Jennifer Maia (+140) vs Casey O’Neill (-170)
  • Middleweight – Marvin Vettori (-275) vs Roman Dolidze (+225)
  • Prelims
  • Featherweight – Jack Shore (-550) vs Makwan Amirkhani (+400)
  • Lightweight – Chris Duncan (+100) vs Omar Morales (-125)
  • Lightweight – Sam Patterson (-275) vs Yanal Ashmoz (+225)
  • Flyweight – Muhammad Mokaev (-1000) vs Jafel Filho (+600)
  • Featherweight – Lerone Murphy (-175) vs Gabriel Santos (+150)
  • Middleweight – Christian Leroy Duncan (-210) vs Dusko Todorovic (+175)
  • Flyweight – Jake Hadley (-400) vs Malcolm Gordon (+300)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Joanne Wood (-175) vs Luana Carolina (+150)
  • Lightweight – Jai Herbert (+150) vs Ludovit Klein (-175)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Veronica Macedo (+350) vs Juliana Miller (-450)

Odds as of March 17

How To Watch UFC 286: Edwards vs Usman 3
  • Date/Time: March 18, 1 p.m. ET
  • Location: London, England
  • Arena: O2 Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
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