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Shevchenko vs Andrade Odds & Prediction: Champ favored heavily

Valentina Shevchenko (left) is favored in the Shevchenko vs Andrade odds at UFC 261.

UFC 261 in Jacksonville, Florida, is a big one with three titles on the line, including Valentina Shevchenko defending her women’s flyweight belt against former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade in the co-main event.

This fight follows the strawweight title bout between Zhang Weili and Rose Namajunas and precedes the welterweight championship main event featuring the rematch between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal.

This card marks the promotion’s return to VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, where the UFC set up in May of last year during the pandemic. UFC 261 is on April 24 with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET. Looking at Shevchenko vs Andrade odds, it is the champion who will walk into the cage as the favorite.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Shevchenko vs Andrade odds with Shevchenko listed at -400 and Andrade at +300. This means you would have to wager $400 to profit $100 with a Shevchenko win, while a $100 bet on an Andrade victory would profit you $300.

Shevchenko vs Andrade Odds

Valentina Shevchenko-400
Jessica Andrade+300

Odds as of April 13 at Bovada

Using our sports betting calculator, the Shevchenko vs Andrade odds tell us that Valentina’s odds of -400 represent an implied win probability of 80.00 percent, while Jessica’s +300 betting line has an implied win probability of 25.00 percent.

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Shevchenko vs Andrade Odds Analysis

While still being fairly chalky at -400, these are the longest odds for Shevchenko since she fought Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the vacant flyweight belt at UFC 231 in 2018 as a -320 favorite. Since then, “Bullet” has been -1100 or greater in her four title defenses.

Second-longest odds ever for Andrade

As heavily favored as Shevchenko has been during her title reign, this still represents the longest odds that “Bate Estaca” has faced since her UFC debut at bantamweight way back in 2013. Andrade was a +435 underdog to Liz Carmouche in that bout and lost via knockout in the second round.

Since then, she has been an underdog just three times over 17 fights, losing two of those bouts to Jedrzejczyk and Namajunas, while beating Claudia Gadelha as a +230 dog.

Shevchenko vs Andrade Preview

When Andrade made her flyweight debut in October, scoring a knockout win over Katlyn Chookagian in the first round, she became the first woman to earn victories in three different weight classes. Despite her five-foot-one stature, Bate Estaca has big power, with eight knockouts on her record to go with seven submissions as well.

Andrade is very aggressive in going right at her opponents, averaging 6.38 significant strikes per minute while also adding 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes. She closes the distance throwing big hooks and looping punches, looking to put her opponent away or close the distance to slam them.

How Will Shevchenko Handle the Forward Pressure?

Typically, you will see Bullet using her outstanding footwork and defensive skills and she rarely gets touched as she picks her opponents apart when they try to close distance. She only absorbs 2.03 significant strikes per minute while landing 2.98.

I don’t think the forward pressure that Andrade will bring will be an issue since Shevchenko was a world-class Muay Thai fighter prior to the UFC and is nasty in the clinch with knees and elbows. That tight fighting will keep Andrade at bay and make her second-guess whether she wants to close the distance. It will also be interesting to see if Valentina elects to use her wrestling to slow down Andrade, as she has secured 16 takedowns over her last five fights.

Shevchenko vs Andrade: Final Thoughts

I think the odds shift from Shevchenko being a favorite of -1000 or greater down to -400 is appropriate as Andrade represents her best challenger since Joanna Jedrzejczyk. That said, I was all over Zhang Weili when she fought Andrade because of the styles and Bate Estaca needs to rush in to do damage with her short 62-inch reach. I don’t think she’ll be able to get on the inside of Shevchenko without absorbing plenty of damage.

The first round or two could be close but after that, I expect Shevchenko to pick up the pace and likely get the finish as Andrade will continue storming forward looking to get her hands on the champ.

Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko (-400) via knockout