Amanda Nunes (right) is the -275 favorite in the UFC 277 odds

UFC 277 Odds & Picks: Nunes Looks To Avenge Title Loss

Women’s bantamweight gold will be on the line at UFC 277, where challenger Amanda Nunes (21-5) looks to avenge her title loss in a main event rematch with Julianna Pena (11-4). 

The card takes place Saturday at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, with prelim action beginning at 6 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. Nunes is the -300 favorite in the UFC 277 odds.

You can check out UFC odds, among other betting markets, at Sportsbook.

UFC 277 Betting Notes

After defending her bantamweight strap five times, “The Lioness” slipped up in her last bout at UFC 269, allowing Pena — a +700 underdog — to smack her around and submit her by rear naked choke in Round 2, culminating in one of the UFC’s most stunning upsets.

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“The Venezuelan Vixen” handed Nunes her fifth career loss and first defeat in 13 fights, making the American the first fighter in six years other than Nunes to wear the belt. Pena has now won back-to-back fights by submission, with eight of her 11 pro wins coming via the finish.

UFC 277: Pena vs Nunes 2 Odds

Online sportsbook Sportsbook has Nunes as a -300 favorite in the UFC 277 odds, leaving Pena with the +220 underdog status. 

UFC 277 betting fans looking for a score on the biggest underdog of the event won’t want to miss the prelims, where Adam Fugitt comes in at +445 in his welterweight battle with Michael Morales (-700).

The tightest odds of the evening can be found in a light heavyweight bout between Ihor Potieria (-105) and Nick Negumereanu (-125). 

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UFC 277 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC 277 Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Women’s Bantamweight Championship – Amanda Nunes (-300) vs Julianna Pena (+220)
  • Interim Flyweight Championship – Brandon Moreno (-210) vs Kai Kara-France (+175)
  • Heavyweight – Sergei Pavlovich (-154) vs Derrick Lewis (+124)
  • Flyweight – Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs Alex Perez (+153)
  • Light Heavyweight – Magomed Ankalaev (-650) vs Anthony Smith (+435)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Alex Morono (+132) vs Matthew Semelsberger (-164)
  • Lightweight – Drew Dober (-175) vs Rafael Alves (+145)
  • Heavyweight – Don’Tale Mayes (-200) vs Hamdy Abdelwahab (+160)
  • Lightweight – Drakkar Close (-213) vs Rafa Garcia (+172)
  • Welterweight – Michael Morales (-700) vs Adam Fugitt (+445)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Joselyne Edwards (-130) vs Ji Yeon Kim (+105)
  • Light Heavyweight – Ihor Potieria (+105) vs Nick Negumereanu (-125)
  • Welterweight – Orion Cosce (-210) vs Blood Diamond (+172)

Odds as of July 30 via Sportsbook

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UFC 277: Pena vs Nunes 2 Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: July 30, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Dallas, Texas
  • Arena: American Airlines Center
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena Odds & Pick

Amanda Nunes-300
Julianna Pena+220

Though still significantly favored, Nunes (-300) enters her rematch against Pena with her tightest odds since 2018, when she was a +160 underdog in a featherweight fight vs Cris Cyborg.

In the pair’s first meeting at UFC 269, the Venezuelan Vixen tagged Nunes with strikes in tight, leading to a wild exchange of hooks in the center of the Octagon to start Round 2. Nunes’ mouth hung open in exhaustion, as she allowed Pena to take her down and execute a rear naked choke submission.

Pena’s fantastic display of heart and pressure against the greatest female fighter of all time helped shine some light on the 32-year-old’s potential as a long-term UFC champion. It will be no easy task, however, to defend her strap against an amped-up Nunes seeking revenge.

Pena: Need to Knows
  • With her win at UFC 269, Pena became the first fighter to submit Nunes in the UFC and just the second ever to defeat her in the Octagon (the other was Cat Zingano at UFC 178). 
  • Pena showed a very strong chin in Round 2 of her last fight vs Nunes, wearing 36 significant strikes while never looking wobbled, eventually stunning the champ and taking her to the ground for the submission victory.
  • The 32-year-old is an active submission artist, averaging 0.91 attempts per 15 minutes, second among active bantamweights, behind only Miesha Tate (1.02). Thanks to her grappling pedigree, Pena has absorbed a minuscule 2.02 strikes per minute, tops among active bantamweights.
  • Pena is 3-2 as the underdog in her UFC career, executing upsets over Sara McMann, Zingano and Nunes. 
  • Pena’s last three fights were Nunes (win – submission), McMann (win – submission) and Germaine de Randamie (loss – submission). 
Nunes: Need to Knows
  • Widely considered the greatest female UFC fighter ever, “The Lioness” holds the all-time bantamweight record for wins (11), finishes (8) and knockdowns (3). 
  • Nunes’ loss to Pena interrupted a 12-fight win streak, while also halting her stretch of seven straight title defenses (four bantamweight, three featherweight).
  • Before Nunes’ submission loss to Pena, the 34-year-old dominated Round 1, outclassing the American on the feet (22-for-27 striking) and holding dominant grappling position for over three minutes. If she has improved her conditioning, Nunes will be at an advantage yet again. 
  • Four of Nunes’ five career losses, including pre-UFC contests, have come by finish (2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB). 
  • Nunes’ last three fights were Pena (loss – submission), Megan Anderson (win – submission) and Felicia Spencer (win – unanimous decision). 

Pick: Nunes (-300), OVER 4.5 Rounds (+164)

See our full Nunes vs Pena 2 preview for more betting info. 

Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France Odds & Pick

Brandon Moreno-210
Kai Kara-France+175

The co-main event features an interim flyweight title fight between Brandon Moreno (19-6-2) and Kai Kara-France (24-9). Current champ Deiveson Figueiredo is currently sidelined due to a hand injury, which necessitated the clash between the No. 1 and No. 2 flyweight contenders. 

Moreno and Kara-France have fought once before, at UFC 245. Kara-France was the favorite at -165, but Moreno, the underdog at +135, won by unanimous decision. 

Moreno: Need to Knows
  • “The Assassin Baby” has gone the distance in five of his last seven fights, establishing his reputation as a patient fighter who lacks lights-out power on the feet (two TKO/KOs in 12 UFC contests).
  • The Mexican is a solid wrestler, having landed at least one takedown in four straight fights. However, when Kara-France and Moreno fought at UFC 245, neither fighter landed a takedown. Kara-France has an excellent 86.8 percent takedown defense, meaning it’ll be harder for Moreno to level change, negating one of his strengths. 
  • Moreno’s last three fights were all against Figueiredo, resulting in a majority draw, a win by submission and a loss by unanimous decision.
Kara-France: Need to Knows
  • A member of the famed New Zealand Gym “City Kickboxing,” Kara-France is a polished kickboxer who’s not afraid to throw high-kick combos or push the pace on his opponent. His average of 4.84 strikes per minute (third-best all-time) and six knockdowns emphasize his deadly striking nature. 
  • “Don’t Blink” loves to use leg kicks, notably landing at least 15 leg strikes in his last four fights that have gone the distance. The 29-year-old damaged Moreno’s legs in their last bout, so expect him to try to compromise his opponent’s base once more. 
  • Kara-France’s last three fights were against Askar Askarov (win – unanimous decision), Cody Garbrandt (win – technical knockout) and Rogerio Bontorin (win – knockout). 

Pick: Kara-France inside the distance (+400)

See our full Kara-France vs Moreno preview, odds and picks here.

Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich Odds & Pick

Derrick Lewis+124
Sergei Pavlovich-154

Up-and-coming heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich (-154) will look to make a statement as he squares off against Derrick Lewis (+124), the UFC’s all-time knockout leader.

After three years away from the Octagon, the Russian (15-1, ranked 11th) returned with some fury, winning his last bout at UFC London by first-round TKO. At 37 years old, “The Black Beast” (26-9, ranked fifth) is looking to avenge his upset knockout loss to Tai Tuivasa at UFC 271 and prove he’s still got the chops to hang around the top of the heavyweight division. 

Lewis: Need to Knows
  • The Houston native has a reputation for dishing out damage, but he’s also known for absorbing it. All seven of his UFC losses have come via the finish, including his last two vs Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane.
  • Lewis’ rock’em, sock‘em style has made him one of the most popular UFC heavyweights ever, which is why we expect him to come out swinging against Pavlovich. Only four of his 24 UFC fights have gone the distance. Against an unproven opponent like Pavlovich, expect fireworks early.
  • The 37-year-old’s last three fights were against Tuivasa (loss – knockout), Chris Daukaus (win – knockout) and Gane (loss – knockout).  
Pavlovich: Need to Knows
  • Like Lewis, Pavlovich has heavy hands, often taking a cautious approach before unloading on his opponent with absolute bombs. However, Sergei boasts a significant five-inch reach advantage, which will force Lewis back, neutralizing some of his in-tight power.
  • Since the Russian is such a strong boxer, opponents often look to punch into a level change or clinch (remember, Pavlovich’s only UFC loss is via a ground-and-pound TKO). Lewis typically doesn’t attempt many takedowns, which should allow the 30-year-old to hang back and lunge for timely bombs, like the thunderous uppercut that wiped out Shamil Abdurakhimov in his last bout. 
  • Pavlovich’s last three fights were against Abdurakhimov (win – technical knockout), Maurice Greene (win – technical knockout) and Marcelo Golm (win – knockout). 

Pick: Pavlovich by TKO/KO (-105)

Alexandre Pantoja vs Alex Perez Odds & Pick

Alexandre Pantoja-190
Alex Perez+157

In a flyweight bout between two top contenders, Alex Perez (+157) returns to the cage for the first time in two years, tangling with Alexandre Pantoja (-190).

Pantoja (24-5, ranked fourth) will enter the UFC 277 odds as a deserving favorite after submitting Brandon Royval, the current No. 5 flyweight, at UFC Vegas 34. Perez (24-6, ranked sixth) last fought vs Figueiredo for the UFC flyweight strap but lost via first-round guillotine choke.

Perez: Need to Knows
  • The 30-year-old fights with serious pop, especially for a flyweight. In his last bout vs Figueiredo, Perez unloaded with some successful hooks and leg kicks before slipping up and rolling into a deadly guillotine. Still, he’s a savage in the division, winning four of six UFC fights by finish (two KO/TKO, two SUB).
  • Five of Perez’s last six bouts (4-2) have ended in Round 1, which speaks to his eagerness to engage with his opponent on the feet and the mat. The California native sports an average fight time of just 5:17, the shortest mark among active flyweights. 
  • Perez’s last three fights were against Figueiredo (loss – submission), Jussier Formiga (win – technical knockout) and Jordan Espinosa (win – submission).
Pantoja: Need to Knows
  • The Brazilian loves to scramble, especially on the mat. He has a jiu-jitsu black belt and a high-IQ submission game, notably finishing Brandon Royval with a well-executed body triangle and rear naked choke. Perez has looked vulnerable on the ground before, giving Pantoja the grappling advantage in this bout.
  • “The Cannibal” holds plenty of power in his right hand, which is the perfect complement to his poised striking approach. In his bout with Matt Schnell at UFC Busan, Pantoja was wobbled multiple times but never panicked, eventually clobbering Schnell with a beautiful overhand in a counter exchange for the KO victory.
  • Pantoja’s last three fights were against Royval (win – submission), Manel Kape (win – unanimous decision) and Askar Askarov (loss – unanimous decision).

Pick: Pantoja by submission (+300)

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Magomed Ankalaev vs Anthony Smith Odds & Picks

Anthony Smith (+435), a staple in the UFC lightweight division, faces his latest obstacle in a heavy stretch of fearsome opponents against budding fighter Magomed Ankalaev (-650). This is the most lopsided fight out of all the UFC 277 odds on the card.

The Russian (17-1, ranked fourth) enters on an eight-fight win streak, though he’s coming off a lackluster decision win over Thiago Santos that didn’t feature much action. Smith (36-16, ranked fifth), on the other hand, has found his stride and is currently riding a three-fight win streak, with all three victories coming via the finish (two SUB and one doctor stoppage).

Ankalaev: Need to Knows
  • The Dagestani product is a well-rounded wrestler, though he’s earned a reputation as a decision fighter, having won eight of 17 career fights via the judges’ scorecards.
  • If you go beyond Ankalaev’s three-fight decision streak, however, you’ll see a stout, powerful fighter with the speed and wherewithal to put opponents away on the feet. He’s not a terribly active fighter, but he’s smart and deadly when he connects – his KO of Ion Cutelaba at UFC 254 spoke to that. 
  • Ankalaev’s last three fights were against Santos (win – unanimous decision), Volkan Oezdemir (win – unanimous decision) and Nikita Krylov (win – decision). 
Smith: Need to Knows
  • Smith’s bout vs Ankalaev will be just his third three-round fight in his last nine matchups, which will allow “Lionheart” to open his striking up a little more as he empties the tank early. Watch for Smith to dictate the pace of this matchup with a higher striking volume than Ankalaev in the early rounds. 
  • At UFC Jacksonville, Glover Teixeira dropped the 33-year-old, suffocating him with submission attempts and pummeling shots to the head that literally knocked Smith’s teeth loose. Ankalaev is more explosive than Glover, leaving some serious concern about how long the Texas native can last on the mat. 
  • Smith’s last three fights were against Ryan Spann (win – submission), Jimmy Crute (win – doctor stoppage) and Devin Clark (win – submission).

Pick: Ankalaev by KO/TKO (+170)

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