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State of the Union Betting Props

US President Donald Trump gives his first State of the Union address to Congress and the country in Washington, United States on January 30, 2018.

Donald Trump will give the state of the union address tonight in front of a Democratic majority House in an address to the nation that is making all the news headlines in the United States today.

Trump has a trend of being reserved and scripted during these speeches – a big departure from his unscripted Twitter ravings. In fact, some pundits have even said that the most presidential he ever is, is during these types of events.

Therefore, it’s interesting to look into the prop bets that have been released for tonight’s speech. Without further ado, let’s do just that:

How many times will “Kavanaugh” be mentioned? 
 Odds
OVER 1.5-115
UNDER 1.5-115

The Brett Kavanaugh thing seems like so long ago, doesn’t it? While I feel like he may bring it up in passing, getting into an issue that is quite similar to the current situation for the Republican governor in Virginia may be a smart thing to stay away from. I think he might talk about the Supreme Court, but I’d be inclined to take the UNDER on this one. 

How many times will Trump say “MS-13”?
 Odds
UNDER 2-150
OVER 2+120

OVER 2 at +120 seems like a good price at +120. It’s a catchphrase and rallying point for his base but it is also a legitimate title of a group that routinely commits crime inside America’s borders. I’m going to say OVER 2.

HOw many times will Trump Say “Mexico”? 
 Odds
OVER 2.5-115
UNDER 2.5-115

Mexico and the southern border are both go-tos for the president, however with the speech being written for him, it’s a little tougher to make a call here. With the whole shutdown about border security, especially from Mexico, I’ll go OVER 2.5 here. 

What Color will Donald Trump’s tie be? 
 Odds
Red-125
Blue+115
Other+450

Last year it was blue. That’s all I have to go on here. 

Which will be said more times during the speech by trump? 
 Odds
Wall-600
Huge+400

The odds say that he will say “wall” more than “huge” but there’s been a shift away from the term “wall” among his staffers and communications people of late. At +400, I’d go with “huge.”

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stand at any point during trump’s speech?
 Odds
Yes-150
No+120

The usual time to stand during this speech is to applaud the president. I don’t see her doing that, that’s for certain. It’s not traditionally the place for opponents to take a stand, pardon the pun, so I’d say “no.”

Will Trump mention Obama?
 Odds
Yes-150
No+120

Trump loves to compare his administration to the previous one. I’m unsure as to if he mentions Barack Obama by name or not. 

Will Trump Say “Cryin’ Chuck”
 Odds
No-10000
Yes+1400

Due to the scripted nature of the speech, I think nicknames for Schumer and Pelosi during the speech are unlikely. 

Will Trump use a nickname for Nancy Pelosi?
 Odds
No-2500
Yes+1000

Archived Articles

On Friday, a sixth person connected to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign was arrested and indicted – and this one was the most dramatic yet. Armed FBI guards and agents stormed Roger Stone’s residence in Florida and extracted him from the house while charging him with seven offenses, including witness tampering, obstruction of an official proceeding and making false statements. 

With that, Roger Stone betting props have been released at  Bovada and we will break them down for you. 

See below for the full list of Roger Stone and Donald Trump betting props, including Trump impeachment odds:

Will Roger Stone be Mentioned During the Upcoming State of the Union?
 Odds
Yes+500
No-900

I actually really like the value on +500 of Roger Stone being mentioned during the state of the union message. Trump has shown an ability to stay on script for the majority of his formal speeches, but it is hard to imagine him not wading into what he feels are personal attacks on him. 

Will Roger Stone Plead Guilty to a Crime in 2019? 
 Odds
Yes+150
No-200

This is my favorite prop here. At +150 I think we definitely see Stone plead guilty to some kind of crime in order to make a deal. The FBI doesn’t show up at your residence if you are innocent. 

Will Roger Stone Testify Publicly Against Donald Trump in 2019?
 Odds
Yes+600
No-1500

Stone has indicated over and over that he would not “turn” on Donald Trump. I think the word “publicly” is important in this prop. If – and that’s a big if – Stone tries to save himself with a deal, it’s unlikely it happens in public in 2019.

Will Donald Trump be Impeached By the House in His First Term?
 Odds
Yes+120
No-150

Time is running out for impeachment proceedings to take place during his first term. However, as things continue to progress with the Mueller probe, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility. I think he will be impeached, but at +120 too many dominoes have to fall to win a low return.

When will the State of the Union Take Place? 
 Odds
February-250
March or Later+200
January+750
Does Not Happen in 2019+2500
Where or How Will the State of the Union Be Delivered?
 Odds
House Chamber-400
Rally+1000
Senate Chamber+1000
White House+1000
In Writing+1500
Through Twitter+2500
Mar-a-Lago+5000
On the Mexican Border+5000
Trump Tower+5000
The Kremlin+100000

Odds as of January 25 at Bovada

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