With Rick DeSantis ending his bid for President, the field for the Republican Nomination has shrunk. It's now, effectively, down to Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Trump is a massive -8000 favorite to win the New Hampshire primary.
Outside of who's going to win the Republican New Hampshire primary we've got a few other markets for you to consider betting on.
New Hampshire Primary Winner: Republican
| Nominee | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -8000 |
| Nikki Haley | +1500 |
Odds as of Jan 22
After netting 51% of the vote from the Iowa caucus recently, Donald Trump wiped the floor with his opponents. The result was so decisive that Ron "I-wish-I-knew-how-real-people-smiled" DeSantis (who came in second) ended his campaign.
Last time around, in 2020, Trump won New Hampshire with a resounding 84.4% of the vote. To be fair, he was the incumbent and his only opponent was Bill Weld. Four years prior, Trump won the primary with 35.23% of the vote from a crowded field with six names on the ballot.
I get Nikki Haley is a known quantity and a political force in Republican circles, but she won't put up much of a fight against the Donald. So how much does he win by?
| Winning Margin | Odds |
|---|---|
| OVER 19.5% | +105 |
| 0.01 to 19.5% | -140 |
| Trump Doesn't Win | +1400 |
Odds as of Jan 22
With only two key names on the ballot and with Trump's seemingly firm grip over the Republican Party, I believe OVER 19.5% is the right choice. Again, he won with 35% in 2016 when names like DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio were on the ballot.
If you believe that like I do, maybe double down and bet on Haley to pick up less than 39.5% at -120.
More New Hampshire Storylines
Why Isn't Joe Biden On The Ticket?
On the Democratic side of the equation, one of the big stories is "Why isn't incumbent Joe Biden not on the ballot"?
Well, there was a big change with the New Hampshire primaries. In a weird political conflict about primary schedules, the DNC has made the primary "non-compliant"? This means the Dems have said the primary is unsanctioned and the results won't stand. So in response, Biden isn't even on the ticket.
So if you see that Joe Biden didn't win the primary, don't act surprised.
Write In
Biden could still win the primary. There's a grassroots campaign to have voters write in the President's name manually on the ballot. But with very little funding (approximately $1.5 million) this grassroots campaign is not likely to have much of an impact.
But who knows, right? With 21 names on the Democratic ticket (not including Biden), there could be enough of a vote split for this write-in campaign to work.
