Just one point separates Red Bull and Mercedes with four races to go. There is all to play for going into this weekend’s Brazil Grand Prix. Odds Shark breaks down the F1 odds for the Brazil Grand Prix and some suggestions for race Sportsbook.
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According to the F1 odds at Sportsbook, Max Verstappen is heavily favored in the F1 odds board to win the Brazil Grand Prix followed by Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton and Red Bull’s Sergio Perez in the distance.
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Verstappen Leads Way In Brazilian Grand Prix Odds
Odds as of November 12 at Sportsbook
Max Verstappen used the slipstream after a fast start, drifted to his left and braked late to propel himself from P3 to P1. That was the race done as no other driver could even come close to the strength of Verstappen at the high altitude of Mexico City. Lewis Hamilton carried out his damage limitation expertly to ensure that he finished P2, while Sergio Perez finished third in his home race in front of raucous home support.
Hamilton Or Verstappen?
Lewis Hamilton showed off his experience down the stretch in Mexico City. His Mercedes car was just not at the same level as Red Bull, which resulted in Sergio Perez making incredible progress towards P2 by the end of the race. Hamilton, though, took him out of DRS range with some stellar defensive driving.
That was as good damage limitation as you are likely to see this season. Mercedes might have a better chance here in Brazil at the lower altitude but based on evidence from Mexico, even Hamilton might not be able to stop Verstappen from racing his away to the chequered flag again. Hamilton’s current F1 odds to win the Brazil Grand Prix is +225.
“I think their pace was phenomenal obviously in the last race,” Hamilton said of his fight with Red Bull. “They’ve had a strong car all year. They’ve had the strongest car as you can tell so I think we’ve done as good as I think we could. We’ll be pushing this weekend to see if we can squeeze any more out of the car.”
Verstappen extended his lead in the drivers’ standings to 19 points after winning another race with enviable ease at Mexico City. His aggression has typified a stunning season for Red Bull, but credit must also go to their mechanics and engineering team, apart from Honda’s reliable, exceptional engine.
At the higher altitude, albeit not as high above sea level as Mexico, Red Bull and Verstappen will be a dangerous combination again. There are three more points available this weekend before the race begins with another Sprint race. Verstappen will be on high alert to ensure no slip-ups with the finish line in sight. Watch for a determined Verstappen in Brazil, which is why he has been given the favorite tag, with F1 odds of -170.
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“I’m just really focused; in four races a lot of things can happen. We are looking good, but things can change very quickly. I said after the race in Mexico, I’ve had a bigger lead already in the championship but that disappeared within two races weekends, so we have to again try to do the best we can here and again after this weekend we will try to win the race,” Verstappen said.
Left-Field F1 Betting Predictions for The Brazil Grand Prix
Perez (+1000) has done well to get on the podium in the last few races. He finished P3 in Mexico but may feel a bit vexed that he couldn’t overtake Hamilton. Still, in that Red Bull car, most current F1 drivers would fancy their chances.
Bottas (+1800) had a pole in Mexico but blew his shot at a race win with some early braking down to turn 1. He was then relegated to the back of the grid with a tire change required. He never really recovered from there, but you can never discount a driver with anything to lose in a sport like F1, because of its incredibly fine margins.
The fight for P3 between Ferrari and McLaren in the constructors’ championship is also heating up with consistency from Carlos Sainz (+5000) and Charles Leclerc (+5000) in the Ferrari. Daniel Ricciardo and Lando Norris have also picked up steam in the second half of this season, which might make for an interesting narrative should Mercedes of Red Bull slip.
“Ferrari has been the stronger team lately, they’ve been the guys who have been consistently ahead in qualifying and the races, so looking at the stats lately, you would put them ahead. But we’re working hard, we’ve done a lot of reviews from Mexico and looking back at two years ago,” Norris said.
History of the Brazil Grand Prix
The Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace was built back in 1938. The first F1 race, though, came much later, in 1973. Brazilians won the first three races at this track: Emerson Fittipaldi in 1973 and 1974 followed by Carlos Pace in 1975. The lap record at this track is 1:10.540 by Valtteri Bottas in 2018.
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There will be a total of 305.909 kilometers of racing in Brazil, split into 71 laps of 4.309 kilometers apiece. There are a total of 15 turns, with two DRS detection zones. Along each of the three sectors, Interlagos has long stretches of straight road, which will play right into Red Bull’s hands, because of their incredible strength and speed on those parts of the track this season.
There is almost no chance of rain on Sunday, which will not please Mercedes much.
Betting Strategy For The Brazil Grand Prix
There are analytics involved in almost all areas to aid decision making in F1. Betting may be the outlier in that respect because if you saw the Mexico Grand Prix, you may have noticed that Verstappen and Red Bull might be simply too strong for the rest of the field.
Hamilton might look at this race as damage limitation again, and move into the final three races in Asia as a favorite because of the higher temperatures. If that’s the case, then there is no better driver to back in Brazil than Verstappen. You could even wait for Sprint, see how he performs there and then place your bets based on that evidence.
Odds Shark will return next week for another update to the F1 odds as the calendar moves to Qatar. Till then, stay tuned for more F1 betting information.