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2021 Russian Grand Prix Betting Odds: Hamilton Heavily Favored

Lewis Hamilton is heavily favored in Russian Grand Prix odds.

Red Bull’s Max Verstappen will have to serve a three-place grid penalty for his overtaking move on Lewis Hamilton in Monza. That has resulted in a reshuffling of the F1 Russian Grand Prix odds. Will Hamilton regain the lead of the drivers’ standings? Or will Verstappen complete a stunning turnaround? Odds Shark breaks down the F1 Russian Grand Prix odds below.

According to the F1 odds at BetOnline Sportsbook, Lewis Hamilton (-160) is the favorite to win the Russian Grand Prix followed by Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas (+350) and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen (+450).

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Odds To Win Russian Grand Prix

2021 Russian Grand Prix Odds
DriverOdds
Lewis Hamilton -160
Valtteri Bottas+350
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)+450
Lando Norris+2000
Sergio Perez+2500
Daniel Ricciardo+2800
George Russell+4000
Charles Leclerc+6600
Carlos Sainz+10000
Pierre Gasly+10000
Fernando Alonso+20000
Sebastian Vettel +20000
Esteban Ocon+25000
Lance Stroll+25000
Mick Schumacher+25000
Antonio Giovinazzi+50000
Kimi Raikkonen+50000
Nicholas Latifi+50000
Nikita Mazepin+50000
Yuki Tsunoda+50000

Odds as of September 24 at BetOnline Sportsbook    

Previous Race

Iconic Monza, as always. In one of the most entertaining races of the year, Max Verstappen drove his Red Bull nearly on top of Lewis Hamilton’s head, which resulted in a DNF for both drivers. Valtteri Bottas was the driver of the weekend after winning qualifying before starting at 20th on Sunday. He drove back expertly to finish third in yet another podium finish.

It was a rare McLaren one-two with Daniel Ricciardo finally reaching his best after a tumultuous year to win followed by Lando Norris. The Ricciardo shoey was the most displeasing moment of the race.

“I definitely try not to make, or dictate, my life happiness around the sport because it’s been three-and-a-half years since I won so I’d be pretty miserable most of the time if I just based my happiness on winning races,” Ricciardo said after the race. “It’s just wild, but deep down I never lost faith or the belief and I think I needed to step back and that’s where I think having some time off in August helped.”

Hamilton Or Verstappen?

Let’s get straight to the crux of the matter. It is very unlikely that Verstappen will win the race for the following reasons. One, he will have to serve a three-spot grid penalty for his overtaking move on Hamilton in Monza. Two, Sochi is a Mercedes stronghold, as Christian Horner pointed out. It is likely that Bottas and Hamilton will complete the front-row lockout (don’t bet against this outcome).

With Bottas leaving Mercedes to go to Alfa Romeo next season, he might be tasked with helping Hamilton regain the lead in the drivers’ standings. And Sochi is a beautiful track for drivers to use the tow, creep up on a car and complete the overtake using DRS. Right now, this is Hamilton’s race to lose, which is why his F1 Russian Grand Prix odds are just -160.

“Honestly, I feel very fortunate today,” Hamilton said after his crash with Verstappen. “Thank God for the halo, that ultimately, I think, saved me, and saved my neck. I don't think I've ever been hit on the head by a car before and it's quite a shock for me, because I don't know if you've seen the image but my head really is quite far forward. And I've been racing a long, long time, so I'm so, so grateful that I'm still here.”

Verstappen will have to quickly pout behind him a disappointing race in Monza, a race he should have won considering he started in the front row. A slow pit stop, a rarity in the Red Bull garage, led to some desperation in order to overtake Hamilton. He will have to serve a penalty and then fight back, which will be arduous against the might of Mercedes in Sochi.

Left-Field F1 Betting Predictions for Russian Grand Prix

Bottas is an attractive proposition for Sochi. He has been given F1 Russian Grand Prix odds of +350, which is significantly higher than Red Bull’s Sergio Perez (+2500) because of the possibility of a front-row lockout for Mercedes.

If that happens, and Sunday turns out to be a damp, miserable day, then Bottas has a serious chance of capitalizing on some errors from other drivers to end his Mercedes career on a high at a track that he has historically been strong at.

Lando Norris (+2000) is not a bad choice should there be enough precipitation on Sunday. However, without rain, the likelihood of springing an upset on Mercedes, drops substantially. All eyes on the weather then!

History of the Russian Grand Prix

The Sochi Autodrom was designed by Hermann Tilke, and was built from the internal roads of the park that was created for the 2014 Winter Olympics. The first Russian Grand Prix was on October 12, 2014, a race that was won by Hamilton, beginning Mercedes’ unparalleled dominance in Sochi. The current lap record is 1:35.761, set by Hamilton in 2019.

Race Technicals

The length of the Russian Grand Prix is 309.745 kilometers, split into 53 laps of 5.848 kms apiece. There are 18 turns at Sochi, with two DRS detection zones (between turns 18 and 1 as well as between turns 9 and 10) as well as one speed trap.

Sochi is historically one of the most iconic tracks for towing a Formula One car. It was Bottas that famously said it’s better not to finish first in qualifying in Sochi because of the tow a car can get along the straight from turn 1 up until turn 2. Watch out for the slipstream here in Russia, with cars moving unilaterally along a single line up until the DRS detection zone opens before the overtaking happens.

This is a street circuit like no other. If Monaco was on one end of the overtaking extreme, then Sochi is on the other end. Overtakes galore!  

Weather Conditions

If you are a neutral F1 fan, then the weather forecast will please you no end. There is a 70 percent chance of rain right through Sunday. Rain is the great F1 leveller, which makes the engine as redundant as possible when compared to dry races. That gives cars further down the track a great chance to use their aggression to overtake the big drivers. Just don’t rain as much as that fateful Sunday at Spa.

Betting Strategy For The Russian Grand Prix

Normally, there would be a bit of hesitation in choosing between Hamilton and Verstappen. Under usual circumstances, it would be all but impossible to choose between them with any level of certainty. However, a three-place grid penalty is a massive disparity between the two drivers.

It is not just about the spots Verstappen will have to make up but the drivers in between them, which is likely to include Bottas. Rain can massively influence this race, but based on the factors and information available presently, Hamilton is the driver to back.

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Russian Grand Prix Odds: Fastest Lap

2021 Russian Grand Prix Odds: Fastest Lap
DriverOdds
Lewis Hamilton +160
Max Verstappen+250
Valtteri Bottas+300
Sergio Perez+450
Lando Norris+2000
Daniel Ricciardo+2500

Odds as of September 24 at BetOnline Sportsbook    

How To Bet Fastest Lap Winner?

Here is a quick explainer of the factors that often determine who wins the fastest lap in an F1 race. Firstly, fastest laps are often dictated only towards the end of a race. One championship point is on offer for a driver if he wins the fastest lap should he finish the race in the top 10.

Drivers will go for the fastest lap by pitting and putting on a set of soft tires, the quickest in their armoury. This happens only if a driver is certain he cannot make up a position using an overtake. If there are more than 25 seconds, around the time it takes to make a pit stop and re-enter the field, then a driver will use the softs.

Considering this, it might make prudent sense to back Verstappen to win the fastest lap. He will likely have to make up enough spots, which will ensure he isn’t really in contention for the winner of the race. He also has one of the most powerful engines in F1 in his Red Bull car with Honda. The odds are actually stacked in his favor.

Odds Shark will be back to update you with the new F1 odds as the calendar moves to Turkey in October. Till then, stay tuned to our F1 pages for more information.