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2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic Prop Bets: Detroit Golf Club

Gary Woodland is +850 to finish inside the Top 5 at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic

With our outright selections now placed, we turn to the top finishing markets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. When perusing through your 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic prop bets, remember to shop around for the best lines as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbooks.

Detroit Golf Club plays host to the PGA Tour this Fourth of July weekend. This Donald Ross design is a relatively new venue for Tour standards as it will only be the third time that we will lay our eyes on it. Other Donald Ross designs include Tour staples such as Sedgefield Country Club, host of the Wyndham Championship, and East Lake Golf Club, host of the Tour Championship. Ross was also responsible for Pinehurst No. 2, before Ben Crenshaw and company got their hands on it and an effort to restore it.

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Despite only two years of history, we can confidently say that the Rocket Mortgage Classic will be a shootout. With previous winning scores of 25-under and 23-under, birdies will have to be made in bunches and pars or bogeys will leave players vulnerable to being lapped by the field. Events like this tend to bring everyone into the mix, making our job all the more difficult.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Prop Bets: What to Look For

Once again, we were able to get one of our prop bets over the finish line last week. While we had a real chance to cash multiple wagers, it was the Jason Day top-10 wager that was our saving grace at the Travelers Championship.

With little course history to go off, I won’t be putting all too much stock into the last two years at Detroit Golf Club. DeChambeau took a rather unorthodox method to victory and is one that may or may not be replicated this week. Lashley on the other hand came out of nowhere, so in two years, we really have two completely different ends of the spectrum when it comes to a favorite and an underdog winning. With a bit of uncertainty, it’s always wise to simply ride current form and hope a hot putter can carry some selections into the top-5 or top-10, depending on the wager.

As discussed in the outright article this week, Bryson DeChambeau is the heavy favorite to defend his Rocket Mortgage Classic title. At +750, we are able to find selections in the top-5 and top-10 markets that we are not only more confident in, but they also payout more.

At Bovada, DeChambeau is -135 to finish inside the top-10. These odds imply a 57.45 percent probability of him being able to do so. Instead of looking to the favorites at the top of the odds board, we’ll go a bit further down as that’s where we’ve been able to find success over the last few weeks.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Max Homa (+800 to finish inside the Top-5)

Like Fowler, we are going back to the well with Homa at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s been one of the most volatile players in recent months, but when he’s on, there are few better. Especially when considering this field, Homa is drastically undervalued, given not only his win equity, but the rate in which he contends, Homa makes for a prudent play in the top-5 market.

If you are able to stomach the missed cuts that come with betting on Homa, you should feel somewhat confident in this one. Before missing consecutive weekends at the Travelers Championship and the U.S. Open, Homa finished in a tie for sixth at the Memorial. He did so as well at the Valspar Championship before missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship. Before that, Homa finished in a tie for 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before missing the cut at The Masters and The Players Championship.

Despite the inconsistencies that I just outlined; a clear pattern has emerged. Two missed cuts followed by a real quality start. Well, this week would fall in the category of quality starts if the current trend continues. It is of no fault to Homa’s ball-striking either as it has carried the majority of the load during this stretch. If he is able to be somewhat competent on and around the greens, Homa should have a great chance to contend this weekend at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Gary Woodland (+850 to finish inside the top-5)

After battling his fair share of injuries, Woodland finally looks healthy and nearly back to his 2019 self. The former U.S. Open champion has been adamant that his current state is the best he’s felt in years and the numbers back it up. He has now gained strokes on approach in five straight starts and will look to continue this streak in his second appearance at Detroit Golf Club.

This impressive stretch of golf has included performances of +3.6 SG: Approach at the Wells Fargo Championship, +6.1 SG: Approach at the PGA Championship, and +2.8 SG: Approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge. With finishes of T-5, T-38, and T-14 in those three starts, Woodland is clearly rounding into form as he heads into the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

His irons have fallen off a bit over his last two starts at the Memorial and the U.S. Open, but this week should fit his eye a bit better tee-to-green. Woodland seems to do some of his best work on old, classical golf courses, kind of like the Copperhead Course where he has won in the past. In a field that lacks some quality, I’m comfortable going to a proven winner such as Woodland to finish inside the top-5 as one of my best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Russell Knox (+850 to finish inside the top-10)

Our next selection may very well be the most obscure, but I swear it’s not without good reason. Based on how Knox has been playing recently, you would expect him to be racking up quality finishes after quality finishes. Sadly, that just hasn’t been the case for the Scotsman, but coming off a missed cut, I’m betting a couple extra days of rest will finally sway the finishes in our direction.

He really has been one of the most consistent iron players on the PGA Tour this season. Before last week at the Travelers Championship, Knox had posted 10 consecutive positive weeks in the SG: Approach category. The problem has been that the rest of his bag can’t make up its mind on when it wants to cooperate or not. One week the driver is the issue, the next it’s the chipping, the next he can’t make anything on the greens.

At +850 for a top-10 finish, I am willing to wager that this week the entire bag finally comes together at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He missed cut last year in his tournament debut, but was in the midst of some of the worst golf of his career. Rejuvenated and now in the middle of some of his best tee-to-green play in recent memory, Knox needs just a somewhat decent week on the greens to play a pivotal role in this tournament.

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Hank Lebioda (+1000 to finish inside the top-10)

Popping up on the Travelers Championship leaderboard on Sunday was Hammerin’ Hank. We were clearly a touch earlier on him as he made our list of selections for the Palmetto Championship, but let’s hope we aren’t too late either. The former Florida State Seminole has been striking the ball tremendously over the last month or so and I am hopeful it’ll continue into the Motor City.

In all honesty, it’s not so much the ball-striking that I am excited about as it’s the putting that has me going back to Lebioda. In a potential birdie fest like this week, a player isn’t going to be able to enjoy the luxury of losing strokes to the field putting. You’ll have to be dialed in on the greens and that’s exactly what Lebioda was last week en route to a top-5 finish.

Posting +5.8 SG: Putting at TPC River Highlands, Lebioda turned in the best putting performance of his career. His play at the Valspar Championship previously held such honors as he posted +5.7 SG: Putting at the Copperhead Course in early May. Putting is also the most difficult aspect of the game to predict, it’s simply too volatile, but Lebioda appeared to have found something and I’m hoping that stays true. If it does, it should allow us to cash in on a potential top-10 finish and is why he makes our list of best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.