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2021 Tour Championship Prop Bets: Back To Garcia At East Lake Golf Club

Sergio Garcia highlights our tour championship prop bets PGA

With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the Tour Championship. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your Tour Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.

East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, will play host to the season finale as the top 30 players on the PGA Tour vie for the FedExCup title. From 125 to 70 to 30, those who have made their way into the Tour Championship have played some of the best golf all year or, on the flip side, of late.

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With the ability to play over 7,300 yards, this par 70 has played host to the Tour Championship since the inception of the FedExCup playoffs. Originally designed by Donald Ross, accuracy off the tee reigns supreme in Georgia and should be an area of the game that is overweighted this week compared to most weeks on the PGA Tour.

Finding the fairway with consistency is only part of the equation as some of the best iron players have found success at East Lake in the past. Off the tee and approach should carry the load as those who fall under the category of “ball-striker” catch my eye and should find a place in a few of my Tour Championship prop bets. 

Tour Championship Prop Bets: What To Look For 

The staggered start at the Tour Championship will likely occupy most of our discussion this week as it is a one-time occurrence each season. With Patrick Cantlay leading the way at 10 under and Tony Finau in the pilot seat at 8 under, those who are toward the bottom of the already crafted leaderboard have more than their fair share of room to make up.

Because of this, there are a multitude of betting options this week ahead of the Tour Championship. While our prop bets typically start from a level playing field, I believe there is some value to be had with the staggered leaderboard already in place. From this, we can target those players that may start a bit down the leaderboard, but have the ability to shoot up the board with strong play over the 72 holes at East Lake Golf Club.

Not only does this present a great opportunity to target those who may thrive, but also to fade those beginning at the top of the leaderboard who are likely to make their way south by the completion of play. It was only two years ago that Patrick Cantlay arrived to the Tour Championship as the No. 2 seed in the FedExCup playoffs. Starting at 8 under, Cantlay faded in Atlanta, carding a 72-hole total of 9 over and finishing in a tie for 21st.

A bit harsh perhaps, as players who enjoyed a strong, consistent season may be undone by four poor days in the Peach State. Yet with the new format, as this is only the third time this way of play has been implemented, a strong showing at the year’s final event is required in order for players to cash in on their season’s play.

At Bovada, tournament favorite via staggered start or not, Jon Rahm is -1000 to finish inside the top 10 via the staggered start. These odds imply a 90.91 percent probability of him being able to do so. As for us, we’ll venture a bit further down the oddsboard as it worked out for us last week. Sergio Garcia continues to help us build our bankroll as the Spaniard came through for a stress-free top-10 finish at the BMW Championship, hopefully starting a nice run to end the season for this article. Let’s keep the momentum from Baltimore rolling into Atlanta as we outline our favorite Tour Championship prop bets.

Tour Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Scottie Scheffler (+200 To Finish Inside The Top 10):

When a premium is put on driving the golf ball, Scheffler immediately comes to mind as we liked his chances to play well last week at Caves Valley. While it wasn’t meant to be for the Texan in the Charm City, his prospects for the Tour Championship didn’t take much of a hit in my eyes. Struggling off the tee isn’t something that the former rookie of the year makes of a habit of and I expect him to bounce back at East Lake.

Starting at 1 under, it may be difficult for him to catch the likes of Cantlay and Finau, but sitting only three strokes out of the top 10, a strong showing could see Scheffler toward the top of the leaderboard by week’s end. Even more so if the iron play that was put on full display at Caves Valley arrives to East Lake where Scheffler came in a solid fifth thanks to shooting 12 under.

After opening with a round of 1 over, Scheffler carded rounds of 66-66-65 to close out his rookie campaign. Seasoned and well versed, I would not be surprised if this season plays out in a similar manner. Expecting a return to form from off the tee, the rest of his game is primed to explode, thus making for our first best bet for the Tour Championship.

Daniel Berger (+350 To Finish Inside The Top 10):

Motivation may be a trendy topic of conversation at East Lake. There is potential that a player such as Dustin Johnson simply mails it in, plays his four rounds of golf, and instead is focused on a certain event in Wisconsin in three weeks. That won’t be the case for Berger as he was not as lucky as Johnson when it came to Ryder Cup qualification and still is in need of a captain’s selection for Whistling Straits.

With that being said, the stretch of golf that Berger is currently going through cannot be ignored, not even by Steve Stricker. Gaining strokes to the field tee to green in seven straight starts, Berger’s iron play has been among the game’s elite and has carried the load over the past two months. With performances north of five strokes gained tee to green in his last three outings, I expect much of the same this week at the Tour Championship.

With around-the-green play mitigated in a sense at East Lake, that should only help Berger’s chances at the Tour Championship. Struggling in that area of the game all summer, not only has the former Florida State Seminole’s chipping been poor, but also his putting.

However, a return to Bermuda greens could be a sight for sore eyes as he has historically done his best work on such surfaces and should hopefully do the same this week. If my intuition does pan out, Berger should find his way into the top 10, making for one of our Tour Championship prop bets as he has to climb out of the hole at even par.

Sergio Garcia (+400 To Finish Inside The Top 10):

I wrote up Sergio in the outright article since I love his chances to capture the low 72-hole total at East Lake this week. If that does not pan out, given we’ve been a bit unlucky in the outright department over the last month or two, I want to have an insurance policy on our wager. That’s where the top-10 selection comes in as I want to enjoy some sort of a payday if Garcia does in fact play well like I expect him to.

His tee-to-green play over the entirety of the summer has been spectacular and should translate to success at East Lake and in the Tour Championship. Starting at even par, he sits only four strokes outside of the top 10 coming into the week despite being 10 full strokes off the lead possessed by Cantlay. While it is a tall mountain to climb to shoot his way to the top of the leaderboard and win the FedExCup, making up four strokes is a much more manageable task.

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In order to do so, the putting display from Baltimore will need to travel to Atlanta, but I am optimistic that it will. He typically does his best work on slippery, fast greens and the Donald Ross design has been known to boast some of the firmer and faster surfaces on the PGA Tour. While they may be a touch slower than usual due to some recent weather rolling through, I still see Garcia thriving, thus making for our favorite prop bet of the 2021 Tour Championship.