Houston, we have a problem.
The Astros are 22-28, 4.5 games out of a playoff spot and five out of the AL West lead. The always-dominant Houston dynasty is struggling this year — but that’s great news for bettors.
I’ve broken down why the Astros have been such a great fade spot this year and a specific Astros betting system play to keep an eye on going forward:
The '24 Astros Have Been A Great Fade
| Market | Record | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Fading Houston | 28-22 | +9.7 units |
| Fading HOU on the road | 13-8 | +5.5 units |
Betting against the Astros hasn't been very fun the last few seasons, but this year it's different. Both overall and on the road, betting against Houston has been big-time profit. But why?
What's Wrong In Houston?
Houston’s big challenge this year has been pitching. After finishing with a top-eight league ERA in each of the last three seasons, the Astros now have the 27th-ranked team ERA, so far (4.58). Much of that comes from bullpen struggles for Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader, but it’s been the starters, too.
Despite starting the year with a few Cy Young candidates, Houston currently has a 5.17 rotation ERA and many of their starters have been the least-profitable pitchers in MLB:
- Hunter Brown -5.48 units
- JP France -5.00 units
- Framer Valdez -2.53 units
- Justin Verlander -2.40 units
When your starters aren't good, you're not gonna win many games, and that's what's happening in Houston. The Astros entered the season third in 2024 World Series odds at +800. They’ve dropped down to +1200, falling four spots — and I’m not sure they’ve even fallen far enough.
The 2024 Astros Fade System
So, fading the Astros in general has been plenty profitable. But, there are a few games coming up on the schedule where I’m really gonna be betting against Houston.
The key here is a June 30th to July 7th stretch where the Astros play 10-straight games on the road.
Fading teams playing at least their eighth road game in a row over the last three seasons has been 97-78. Doing so in 2024, so far, has been 15-8 (+2.7 units).
It makes sense, those are three-city road trips, with no rest days. These are professional athletes, but that kind of travel would wear on anyone. The Astros, specifically, are 1-1 on their eighth road game in a row over the last three seasons.
So, fading teams after playing eight games in a row is a system I’m going to be tracking all season, but here are the three Houston games I’ll certainly be implementing it for in a month (after they play @NY and @Toronto):
- July 5th @ Minnesota
- July 6th @ Minnesota
- July 7th @ Minnesota
Happy fading friends!
